对此，兴业证券首席策略分析师张启尧表示，年初以来涨幅居前的30个概念指数，25个均与涨价相关， 涨价领域正在由有色向油气、化工、建材、科技等更广阔的范围扩散。"往后看，'涨价'作为'景气'的代 名词和决定风格扩散的核心因素，有望成为今年最重要的一条主线，全年对于'涨价'这一逻辑需要充分 重视。"他表示。 2026年以来，"涨价"成为资本市场上一条最重要的交易线索。春节长假后，涨价概念股走势强劲，如化 工、有色等板块领涨大盘。 节奏上，张启尧认为，3月和4月作为全年验证涨价、交易涨价的第一个重要窗口，随着国内涨价线索进 一步丰富、更多领域涨价有望迎来验证，涨价作为当前企业盈利回升和市场风格扩散的重要逻辑，可能 会被当成一个核心线索去轮动、交易。 张启尧分析称，综合多维度因素，电新（电池、电网设备）、机械（工程机械、专用设备、通用设备、 自动化设备）、TMT（电子、通信、游戏）以及创新药、新消费、造船、商用车、汽车零部件、化学 制品等细分方向均存在确定性较强的出海机会。 （文章来源：深圳商报） 张启尧分析称，一方面，涨价作为反映业绩改善和景气上行的最直接、最显性的信号，交易涨价本质上 就是在交易景气。随着今年盈利 ...

2026 年 02 月 24 日 证券研究报告 | 公募基金周报 地缘关税扰动并存，市场结构趋势延续 公募基金指数跟踪周报（2026.02.09-2026.02.13） 分析师：孙书娜 分析师登记编码：S0890523070001 电话：021-20321306 邮箱：sunshuna@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890522090001 电话：021-20321067 邮箱：wanghua@cnhbstock.com 研究助理：张琦炜 邮箱：zhangqiwei@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 相关研究报告 1、《节前震荡下行，风格短期切 换 — 公 募 基 金 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 （2026.02.02-2026.02.06）》2026- 02-09 2026/2/9》2026-02-09 得 期 待 — 公 募 基 金 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 （2026.01.26-2026.01.30）》2026- 02-02 4 、 《 ETF 策 略 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 — 2026/2/2》2026-02-02 切换至绩优方向—公募基金指数跟踪 周 报 （ 20 ...

市场风格再平衡的核心，从来不是AI的泡沫存在与否，而在于AI的宏观影响叠加货币政策、大国政策 选择，主要矛盾正在发生变化，紧缺环节已经转移。对大宗商品而言，前期价格的高波动回归后，产业 定价将强于货币属性；而黄金作为风险对冲工具，在美国债务可持续性问题再度被推上台面之际，有望 为组合提供更坚实的保护。推荐：一是实物资产的重估逻辑从流动性和美元信用切换至产业低库存和需 求企稳：铜、铝、锡、原油及油运、稀土、金；二是具备全球比较优势且周期底部确认的中国设备出口 链——电网设备、储能、工程机械、晶圆制造，以及国内制造业底部反转品种——石油化工、印染、煤 化工、农药、聚氨酯、钛白粉等；三是抓住资金回流+缩表压力缓解+人员入境趋势的消费回升通道 ——航空、免税、酒店、食品饮料；四是受益于资本市场扩容与长期资产端回报率见底的非银金融。 兴业证券：重视关税税率下降后出口链的修复机会 考虑到本轮供需格局改善带来的涨价更多是结构性的，当前涨价更可持续的领域或将仍以中游材料和制 造为主。供需缺口是涨价最本质的逻辑，当前已具备供需缺口的领域涨价将更具备持续性。分产业链来 看，本轮涨价周期中，供需缺口率先发生在新兴产业趋势和"反内卷 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overseas markets showed a slight rebound during the Spring Festival holiday, with U.S. stocks recovering and commodities performing strongly, driven by geopolitical disturbances that significantly increased the prices of oil, gold, and copper. The performance of Chinese assets, particularly the FTSE China A50 index futures, also indicated a positive trend, suggesting a potentially favorable start for the A-share market in the Year of the Horse [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The overseas non-U.S. assets maintained a strong performance during the holiday, indicating a high risk appetite among overseas investors, which is expected to benefit the A-share market post-holiday [5]. - The inflow of funds into the market remains unchanged, with a notable decrease in household deposits and an increase in non-bank financial institution deposits, suggesting a shift towards equity markets [6]. - Historical data shows that the A-share market typically performs well in the 20 trading days following the Spring Festival, with a 75% probability of the CSI All A Index rising during this period [9]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - The focus for investment should be on sectors benefiting from AI and resource commodities, with a particular emphasis on the robotics and AI technology applications showcased during the Spring Festival [13][14]. - The traditional sectors such as real estate and liquor are expected to see a recovery as their valuations are at historical lows, supported by improving fundamentals and policy catalysts [11]. - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) policy is anticipated to enhance the supply dynamics of resource commodities, making them attractive for investment [11]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on the technology sector, particularly in robotics and AI applications, as well as cyclical sectors like chemicals, construction materials, and machinery, which are expected to benefit from rising prices and improved demand [15]. - The market is entering a configuration phase where "technology + cyclical" remains the main theme, with technology sectors likely to respond first to market catalysts [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - A shares rose, and the TMT sector performed well. It is recommended to have a balanced style allocation, emphasize technology - growth style funds, and also consider domestic - demand value assets [1][3][17] - For stock - hybrid funds, it is optimistic about the technology - growth and domestic - demand directions benefiting from incremental policies and industry event catalysts; for bond funds, it is suggested to focus on medium - duration interest - rate bond products [3][17] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Past Two - Week Market Review - **A - share Market**: During the pre - holiday week (20260209 - 20260213), A shares continued the previous upward trend. The TMT sector represented by AI applications performed well. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.39%. The growth style outperformed the value style. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by about 146.82 billion yuan compared with the previous week. Among the industries, 18 out of 31 industries rose, with the top - performing industries being comprehensive, computer, etc., and the bottom - performing being textile and apparel, food and beverage, etc. [6] - **Bond Market**: In the pre - holiday week, due to loose funds and increased demand for holding bonds during the holiday, the bond market rose. The yields of 1 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds and national development bonds generally decreased, and the spreads of corporate bonds and urban investment bonds changed. The main bond indexes rose, and the convertible bond index rose 1.08% [7] - **Overseas Market**: In the past two weeks (20260209 - 20260220), the US stocks fell due to factors such as the Fed official's adjustment of the expected interest - rate cut and concerns about private loans. European markets rose, and Asian - Pacific markets showed mixed performance. The US dollar index fell, and commodity prices such as oil and precious metals rose. [8] Pre - holiday Week Fund Market Review - **Stock - type Funds**: Stock - type funds rose 1.27% overall, with active stock - open funds rising 1.42%, outperforming the index. Some funds heavily invested in artificial intelligence, chip semiconductors and other sectors performed well. Index funds tracking artificial intelligence and film and television themes also performed well [9][10] - **Bond - type Funds**: Bond - type funds rose 0.15% overall, with active bond - open funds rising 0.16%, outperforming the index. Partial - debt bond funds and convertible - bond funds with equity assets in chip semiconductors, media and other sectors performed well, and some pure - bond funds with heavy allocation of medium - short - duration interest - rate bonds also performed well [10] - **QDII Funds**: Equity - type QDII funds rose 1.02% overall, and some funds mainly investing in markets such as Japan and South Korea performed well. QDII bond - type funds rose 0.35% [11] - **Other Funds**: The annualized yield of money funds was 1.20%. Gold ETFs and their linked funds rose 1.40%, and commodity - type funds rose 1.65% [10][12] Future Investment Strategy - **Macro - economy**: In January 2026, the social financing stock growth rate was 8.2%, with government bonds being the main contributor. The credit showed a phenomenon of short - term debt. M1 and M2 growth rates both increased, with M2 reaching a two - year high. The financial data at the beginning of the year showed stable credit and strong currency. In the future, corporate foreign exchange settlement and fiscal efforts are expected to promote domestic liquidity expansion [13][14] - **Stock Market**: The trading heat of hot topics declined, and the space - photovoltaic - related topics strengthened. With the convening of local two sessions and the approaching Spring Festival, the technology - growth and domestic - demand directions are favored [15] - **Bond Market**: There are three possible scenarios for the Fed's subsequent policies. Currently, the risk of US long - term bonds may be accumulating, and the allocation strategy should focus on medium - duration varieties [16] - **Fund Investment**: For stock - hybrid funds, a balanced style allocation is recommended, emphasizing technology - growth style funds and considering domestic - demand value assets; for bond funds, it is suggested to focus on medium - duration interest - rate bond products; money funds have no trending investment opportunities; for commodity funds, gold ETFs can be appropriately allocated [17] Fund Market Latest Developments - **Fund Investment Advisers' Adjustment**: Since the beginning of 2026, fund investment advisers have accelerated the pace of portfolio adjustment. Nearly 178 out of 650 portfolios have been adjusted, increasing the allocation of low - valuation value - type funds. The positions of A - shares and bonds have been increased, and cash, US stocks and Hong Kong stocks have been reduced [18] - **New Fund Issuance**: Since the beginning of 2026, new fund issuance has been booming. In January, 169 new funds were issued, reaching the highest level since March 2023. Many funds were sold out in one day, and a 7 - billion - level active equity new product appeared. Institutions are preparing for the post - holiday market [19][20] - **Newly Established Funds in the Past Two Weeks**: A total of 64 new funds were established, with an average subscription period of about 16 days and an average raised share of 911 million. The total raised share was 58.33 billion, with Peng'an Antai Interest - rate Bond raising the largest share of 6 billion [21] - **Next Week's Fund Dividends**: 20 funds will conduct equity registration. Tianhong CSI Central - State - owned Enterprises' Dividend 50 Index is worth noting, with a dividend of 0.1 yuan per 10 shares [22]

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，农历新年假期接近尾声，期间国内旅行和消费数据稳步增长。海 外方面，美国的"对等关税"和"芬太尼关税"被当地最高法院裁定违法，特朗普另推"全球进口关 税"15%。港股节后开市整体偏平淡，AI和机器人板块表现突出。综合春节假期期间的内部和外部信 息，A股节后或整体平稳，假期期间受关注度较高的增长板块尤其是AI和人形机器人板块有望成为结构 亮点。 结合产能周期位置，建议关注供需问题接近改善转折点或政策支持领域，关注化工、养殖业、新能源 等；优质高股息，中长期资金入市是长期趋势，从优质现金流、波动率及分红确定性出发，可结构性布 局高股息龙头公司；年报业绩亮点领域，例如黄金板块、受惠于AI高景气的TMT板块、非银金融等。 配置方面，中金建议近期关注多个领域，包括景气增长，AI技术领域经历3年高速发展，2026年可望逐 步进入产业应用兑现阶段，光模块、云计算基础设施层面仍有机会，但可能更偏国产方向；应用端关注 机器人、消费电子、智能驾驶等。此外，创新药、储能、固态电池等方向也正步入景气周期，出海仍是 目前较确定性的增长机会，结合出海趋势和对美敞口，建议专注于家电、工程机械、商用客车、电 ...

Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to experience a low-volatility trend with a long-term decline in market volatility [2] - The upward trend in the stock market is not yet over, indicating further potential for growth [2] - A-shares are anticipated to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, with the importance of fundamentals increasing after a valuation adjustment [2][3] Capital Flow - The demand for asset allocation among domestic residents has been activated by profit effects, with various medium- to long-term funds entering the market, suggesting an active capital flow in 2026 [2][3] - Incremental capital is expected to cover a broader range, driven by increasing motivation among individual investors to enter the market [3] - Public funds and insurance capital are likely to continue increasing their allocation to equity assets, reshaping global capital flow logic [4] Key Investment Sectors - Key sectors to focus on include: - Non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy [2] - Technology growth, manufacturing expansion, cyclical consumption transformation, and U.S. stocks [2] - New energy, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, oil and petrochemicals, non-bank financials, military industry, and machinery [3] - AI, new energy, military industry, innovative pharmaceuticals, price increase chains, and overseas expansion chains [4] - Technology innovation themes and consumption sectors [4] - TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors, with potential shifts towards cyclical and financial sectors [4]

Core Insights - Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) has experienced a significant decline of approximately 50% year-to-date, marking a continuous downward trend since the initial coverage began [1] Company Performance - The stock has dropped 50% since the first coverage, indicating a persistent negative momentum in its market performance [1] Analyst Background - The analysis is provided by a retired Wall Street portfolio manager with over two decades of experience in the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sectors, emphasizing a focus on risk mitigation and momentum strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a rebound this week, with a notable shift towards growth sectors, although overall capital withdrawal and reduced trading volume indicate a cautious market sentiment ahead of the holiday [2][3][5]. Market Overview - The A-share market rebounded significantly after a previous week's decline, with small-cap and growth sectors outperforming large-cap indices, marking a transition from a "value defense" phase to a "growth offensive" structure [3][7]. - The Sci-Tech 50 Index showed the most remarkable performance, rebounding strongly after a deep correction last week, leading all major indices in gains [3][7]. Industry Performance - The market displayed a clear rotation pattern, with the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector leading the gains, while defensive sectors like consumer and financials continued to decline [10][24]. - High-growth and high-elasticity sectors attracted significant capital attention, while defensive sectors and previously strong sectors experienced capital outflows [10][24]. Trading Volume and Capital Flow - Despite the index rebound, there was a notable "price increase with volume decrease" phenomenon, with trading volume and turnover both declining by 12.3% and 13.6% respectively compared to the previous week [24][25]. - Main capital flows shifted from net inflows at the beginning of the week to a cumulative net outflow of 994.97 billion yuan by the end of the week, indicating rising risk aversion ahead of the holiday [34][36]. Individual Stock Performance - The top gainers were predominantly small-cap stocks driven by technology attributes and thematic factors, while the top losers included high-position stocks and traditional industry names [19][21]. - The top ten stocks by net inflow were mainly technology-related, reflecting a concentrated capital focus on this sector [40]. Market Sentiment - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit up showed a "stair-step decline," indicating a weakening buying momentum, while the number of stocks hitting the limit down increased, suggesting a shift towards caution in market sentiment [42][43]. - Margin trading data also indicated a slight decrease in financing balances, reflecting a trend of profit-taking and reduced positions ahead of the holiday [44]. Future Considerations - The upcoming "calendar effect" is expected to have a significant impact on market dynamics, particularly with a large number of shares set to be unlocked post-holiday, which may pressure stock liquidity [48][49].

Group 1: Industry Trends - The high-tech manufacturing PMI is at 52.0%, indicating a sustained positive development trend in related industries such as electronics, software, and communication services [1] - Policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are being implemented, including a focus on promoting consumption of durable goods like automobiles and home appliances [1] - There is a shift from "involution" competition to value-oriented competition, creating investment opportunities in sectors like energy metals and specialty steel [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The top five sectors with net inflows include shipbuilding, military industry, film and television, automotive parts, and semiconductors [1] - The leading concepts with net inflows are military groups, liquid-cooled servers, large fund concepts, drones, and Tencent-related stocks [1] - The top ten individual stocks with net inflows include Light Media, Bona Film Group, Invec, Daily Interaction, Hailanxin, China Shipbuilding, Huafeng Technology, Northern Huachuang, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Wangsu Technology [1] Group 3: AI and Technology Developments - The AI healthcare market in China is projected to reach 97.6 billion yuan by 2028, with significant applications in areas like consultation and medical report generation [3] - The global AI computing power center is experiencing explosive growth, leading to a scarcity of transformers, with delivery times in the U.S. extending from 50 weeks to 127 weeks [3] - Domestic large model manufacturers are leveraging major holiday events to enhance user engagement and accelerate commercialization in AI applications [5] Group 4: Market Overview - The overall market trend is weak, with limited new capital entering and a weak profit-making effect [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index saw a nearly 20% increase over the past year, but the market remains challenging for traders [11] - The valuation metrics indicate that the stock market is relatively low compared to historical averages, with the overall A-share index PE at 23.3 [11]