Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector relative to the broader market [1][58]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a recovery with improved domestic demand expectations, presenting a good opportunity for allocation [3][5]. - The liquor segment shows signs of bottoming out, with retail sales of tobacco and alcohol increasing by 8.5% year-on-year in March, indicating a clearer market bottom as earnings reports approach [5][53]. - The beer industry is expected to see marginal improvements in sales as temperatures rise and consumption policies continue to stimulate demand [5][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector rose by 0.24% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.34 percentage points, ranking 17th among 31 sectors [10]. - Sub-sectors such as soft drinks and pre-processed foods performed well, increasing by 4.42% and 4.11% respectively [10][15]. 2. Key Consumption and Raw Material Prices - The average price of fresh milk is 12.19 CNY per liter, with a week-on-week increase of 0.08% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.89% [27]. - The price of pork is 44.48 CNY per kilogram, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.25% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.33% [27]. 3. Industry Dynamics - In Q1 2025, the production of liquor was 103.2 million liters, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.3% [53]. - The beer export volume in March was 59,500 hectoliters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%, while imports increased by 18.8% [54]. 4. Core Company Updates - Guizhou Moutai launched a new product on April 18, with a price of 818 CNY per bottle, indicating a strong brand and channel capability [5]. - Ganyuan Foods reported a revenue of 2.257 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.18%, but faced a revenue decline of 13.99% in Q1 2025 [56].
食品饮料行业周报:酒企基本面筑底,零食景气度较高
东海证券·2025-04-22 10:23