GDPD(600795) 海通国际证券·2025-04-22 11:27Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating, assigning a target price of RMB 5.32 based on a 14x PE for 2025 [4][18]. Core Insights - The company's 2024 revenue is projected at RMB 179.2 billion, a decrease of 1.0% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise by 75.3% to RMB 9.83 billion [19]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of RMB 45.3 billion, up 4.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 640 million, reversing a loss from the previous year [19]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in asset and credit impairment in Q4 2024, amounting to RMB 860 million, down RMB 1.09 billion year-on-year [20]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 3.57 billion for 2024, representing 36.3% of net profit attributable to shareholders [19]. Financial Data and Forecasts - The financial summary indicates that the company's revenue is expected to recover slightly in 2025, with projections of RMB 180.8 billion, followed by RMB 191.9 billion in 2026 and RMB 192.9 billion in 2027 [3][17]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 6.71 billion in 2025, RMB 7.73 billion in 2026, and RMB 8.32 billion in 2027, reflecting a significant increase in 2024 [3][17]. - The report notes that the company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 11.1% in 2025, with a gradual increase to 11.8% by 2027 [3][17]. Operational Highlights - The company is nearing the completion of hydropower projects, with a total capacity of 15.0GW expected by the end of 2024, and additional capacity planned for 2025 and 2026 [21]. - The report indicates that the company's wind and solar power segments experienced a decline in net profit, with projections of RMB 780 million and RMB 600 million respectively for 2024 [21]. - The company plans to invest RMB 28 billion in early-stage and infrastructure projects in 2025, which is a decrease of 11.6% year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown in renewable energy project development [21].