Milkground(600882) 信达证券·2025-04-22 12:27Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q1 2025, achieving revenue of 1.233 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 82.4 million yuan, up 114.88% year-on-year [1][3] - The cheese business has significantly increased its share of total revenue, accounting for 83.53% of total revenue, compared to 67.61% in the same period last year [3] - The company has shown strong operational momentum following the integration of Mengniu Cheese, with a focus on optimizing product structure and enhancing brand presence [3] Revenue and Profitability - In Q1, the company's gross margin was 31.49%, an increase of 2.83 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product structure optimization and increased cheese revenue [3] - The sales expense ratio decreased to 16.80%, down 2.68 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting cost control efforts [3] - The net profit margin for Q1 reached 6.68%, an increase of 3.38 percentage points year-on-year [3] Financial Forecast - The company expects EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 0.41 yuan, 0.57 yuan, and 0.82 yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 64X, 46X, and 32X [3][4] - Projected total revenue for 2025 is 5.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.1% [4] - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit, with projections of 212 million yuan for 2025, reflecting an 86.6% year-on-year growth [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as the market leader in the cheese sector, with expectations of benefiting from industry growth and domestic raw material substitution [3] - The company is actively developing various sales channels, including retail and B2B, to enhance market penetration and service capabilities [3]