QYDL(002039) 华源证券·2025-04-22 13:04Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance is expected to improve due to favorable water inflow, which will enhance earnings flexibility. The major shareholder's increase in holdings reflects confidence in the company's future [5][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1,933 million RMB, a decrease of 2.89% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 218 million RMB, down 17.59% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [7] - The company forecasts a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, estimating between 50 to 54 million RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 330% to 365% [7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.06 RMB per share for 2024, with total dividends for the year accounting for 31.35% of the net profit [7] - The major shareholder, Huadian Group, plans to increase its stake in the company by 0.85% to 1.7% [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 2,423 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.34% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 411 million RMB in 2025, reflecting an 88.42% increase compared to 2024 [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.96 RMB in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.76 [6] Operational Data - The company has a total installed capacity of 4,106 MW, with hydropower accounting for 3,234 MW and photovoltaic power for 872.1 MW [7] - In 2024, hydropower generation is expected to be 6.33 billion kWh, a 3.35% increase from 2023, while photovoltaic generation is projected to decline by 12.3% [7] - The average utilization hours for hydropower from 2014 to 2024 are around 2,500 hours [7] Financial Health - The company's total assets are projected to be 15,563 million RMB in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 56.14% [3][8] - The company aims to reduce its debt-to-asset ratio to 54.14% by 2025 through ongoing debt repayment [7] Market Position - The company serves as the hydropower listing platform for Huadian Group, which is committed to enhancing shareholder returns and supporting the company's high-quality development [7]