AI系列跟踪专题报告：美关税政策反复下通信行业投资观点-20250422

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the increasing external uncertainties due to the fluctuating U.S. tariff policies, which significantly impact the technology sector. The recent U.S. tariff policies have caused severe fluctuations in global financial markets, with key categories like computers, smartphones, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and integrated circuits being exempted from additional tariffs. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies has become a major disruptive factor in global financial markets [2][4]. - The report suggests a short-term focus on the optical communication industry chain's tariff exemption situation, recommending attention to companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and Taicheng Light. It also emphasizes the importance of domestic optical chip industry chain and Huawei's Ascend industry chain for domestic substitution opportunities, as well as key domestic computing power node industry chains [2][4]. - Long-term prospects are optimistic regarding domestic substitution and domestic demand opportunities, particularly in the context of increasing domestic computing power needs and the trend towards reducing reliance on North American clients [2][4]. Summary by Sections Tariff Policy Impact - The report discusses the significant impact of U.S. tariff policies on the optical communication industry, particularly affecting companies that sell to U.S. cloud service providers. If tariffs continue to rise, downstream customers may require optical module manufacturers to bear some of the tariff costs, which could squeeze product gross margins due to the limited bargaining power of midstream manufacturers [2][4]. - The increase in tariffs may lead to a split in the global ICT market supply chain, prompting companies to reassess their supply chain layouts to reduce dependence on a single market. This could also result in increased product prices, affecting global market demand and potentially leading to overcapacity in standardized products [2][4]. Short-term and Long-term Opportunities - In the short term, the report suggests focusing on undervalued optical module manufacturers that may benefit from tariff exemptions. Many manufacturers have low price-to-earnings ratios and possess long-term competitiveness in the global market. If tariffs are lifted, it would alleviate the recent impacts on the optical module industry chain [2][4]. - In the long term, the report emphasizes the trend towards domestic production of optical chips to reduce high import tariffs and associated costs. The increasing domestic demand for computing power and the need to mitigate risks from international tariff disputes highlight the importance of domestic substitution and new demand opportunities [2][4].