BCHT(688276) 国投证券·2025-04-22 14:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 23.53 CNY, compared to the current stock price of 20.83 CNY [5][8]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to a decline in sales of the shingles vaccine, a decrease in gross margin, and an increase in expense ratios. In 2024, total revenue was 1.229 billion CNY, down 32.64% year-on-year, and net profit was 232 million CNY, down 53.67% year-on-year [1][2]. - The sales revenue for the chickenpox vaccine and nasal spray flu vaccine showed stable growth, with revenues of 837 million CNY (up 2.16% year-on-year) and 141 million CNY (up 15.37% year-on-year), respectively. However, the shingles vaccine sales dropped significantly to 251 million CNY, down 71.54% year-on-year [2]. - The company is advancing its vaccine pipeline, with several projects expected to enhance performance, including the approval of a liquid nasal spray flu vaccine, which is anticipated to contribute positively to future earnings [3][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the overall gross margin was 85.42%, down 4.81 percentage points, and the expense ratio was 60.23%, up 5.84 percentage points. For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 85.27%, down 4.45 percentage points, while the expense ratio surged to 87.12%, up 20.28 percentage points [1]. - The company forecasts revenue growth rates of 10.2%, 13.3%, and 11.7% for 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 4.9%, 16.7%, and 14.4% for the same period [8][10]. Vaccine Sales - The company has successfully expanded its international market presence, exporting the shingles vaccine to Colombia and the chickenpox vaccine to Afghanistan, with products now available in over 10 countries [2]. - The company is focusing on multiple vaccine development projects, including the whooping cough vaccine and rabies monoclonal antibody, which are expected to enter clinical trials in 2025 [3]. Market Position - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 8.616 billion CNY, with a circulating market capitalization of the same amount. The total share capital is 413.66 million shares [5].