SHAONENG(000601) 华源证券·2025-04-22 15:29Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][8]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a regional hydropower firm that is set to benefit from the growth of new energy in the context of becoming a "computing power city" [5][7]. - The company has diversified its operations into three main business segments: energy, ecological plant fiber products, and precision manufacturing, with respective revenue contributions of 35%, 47%, and 13% in 2023 [7][17]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth driven by its hydropower and ecological paper products, while also improving profitability in its biomass segment [10][41]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the company's stock is 5.90 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 6,375.25 million yuan [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 47.5 billion, 49.2 billion, and 51.2 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.67%, 3.65%, and 3.89% respectively [6][63]. - Expected net profits for the same period are 1.04 billion, 1.39 billion, and 1.65 billion yuan, with growth rates of 139.12%, 33.20%, and 19.35% for 2025-2026 [6][63]. - The current price-to-earnings ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 61, 46, and 39 times [8][63]. Business Segments Energy (Power Generation) - The company has a total installed capacity of 1.185 million kilowatts, with hydropower accounting for 680,000 kilowatts, primarily located in Guangdong and Hunan provinces [7][17]. - Hydropower is the main profit contributor, maintaining a gross profit margin of around 55% [10][25]. - The biomass segment has faced challenges, but there are expectations for improvement through the expansion of steam supply and heating services [10][37]. Ecological Paper Products - The ecological paper products segment, particularly disposable tableware, is expected to grow significantly due to increasing demand driven by environmental regulations [41][44]. - In 2023, the company sold 4.4 million tons of paper tableware, achieving a gross margin of 5.4% [43][44]. Precision Manufacturing - The precision manufacturing segment has shown stable growth, with a revenue increase of 4.22% in the first half of 2024, driven by the demand for components in the new energy vehicle sector [53][54]. New Energy Development - The company is actively developing new energy projects in response to the growing demand for clean energy in the context of the "East Data West Computing" initiative [10][60]. - The local government has set ambitious targets for renewable energy installations, including 8GW of solar and 4GW of wind power by 2035 [60][61].