EG5-9月差继续走强，基差走弱

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The EG 5 - 9 month spread continued to strengthen, and the basis weakened. The price of the EG main contract closed at 4180 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton or -0.59% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4209 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan/ton or -0.50% from the previous trading day). The basis was 34 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan/ton month - on - month). Due to the fermentation of the warehouse receipt delivery issue, the short - sellers reduced their positions, causing the EG price to rebound. With the approaching limit - position time, there is a need to reduce positions, leading to a significant strengthening of the 5 - 9 month spread and a weakening of the basis [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 67 US dollars/ton (up 6 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - made syngas EG was - 247 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the East China main port was 77.5 tons (up 0.4 tons month - on - month), and according to Longzhong data, it was 70.7 tons (up 2.0 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 11.2 tons, less than the planned amount, and the port inventory was stable. This week, the planned arrival is 19.6 tons, slightly on the high side, and the inventory may accumulate. Overall, the port inventory has remained stable recently. The current inventory is at a seasonal median level in the past five years, and the hidden inventory is still high [2]. - Fundamentally, as coal - made plants undergo centralized maintenance, the domestic supply of EG has declined. The China - US trade war also affects the supply side of ethylene glycol. On the demand side, the polyester load has remained high in the near term, but the textile and clothing orders directly exported to the US are still on hold, and the expectation of polyester production cuts suppresses market sentiment. Although there is some support for inventory reduction in April, the hidden inventory of polyester factories is still high, and the actual reduction in port inventory is limited [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The price of the EG main contract closed at 4180 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton or -0.59% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 4209 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan/ton or -0.50% from the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis (based on the 2505 contract) was 34 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 67 US dollars/ton (up 6 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and that of coal - made syngas EG was - 247 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. International Spread No specific content provided in the given text. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The polyester load has remained high in the near term, but the textile and clothing orders directly exported to the US are still on hold, and the expectation of polyester production cuts suppresses market sentiment [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory in the East China main port was 77.5 tons (up 0.4 tons month - on - month), and according to Longzhong data, it was 70.7 tons (up 2.0 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 11.2 tons, less than the planned amount, and the port inventory was stable. This week, the planned arrival is 19.6 tons, slightly on the high side, and the inventory may accumulate. Overall, the port inventory has remained stable recently. The current inventory is at a seasonal median level in the past five years, and the hidden inventory is still high [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously short - hedge MEG. Given the expected weakening of crude oil prices in the medium term due to the US tariff increase and OPEC+ production increase, and the weak expectation of textile and clothing demand, short - hedge MEG with caution [3]. - Inter - period: No strategy provided [3]. - Inter - variety: No strategy provided [3].