RYC(003010) 华源证券·2025-04-23 02:33Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [5][45]. Core Views - The company has a solid foundation in agency operations and is poised to unlock potential through its proprietary brands. It has established a competitive advantage in various sectors, including health products, maternal and infant care, beauty and personal care, and food and beverages [5][11]. - The company is transitioning from traditional agency operations to comprehensive brand management, which has led to significant revenue and profit growth since 2023 [19][21]. Summary by Sections Basic Data - Closing price: 47.27 CNY - Total market capitalization: 7,753.72 million CNY - Circulating market capitalization: 5,716.17 million CNY - Total shares: 164.03 million - Debt-to-asset ratio: 27.46% - Net asset per share: 6.17 CNY [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Expected revenue for 2024-2026: 1.81 billion CNY, 2.34 billion CNY, and 2.76 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.4%, 29.2%, and 18.1% respectively - Expected net profit for the same period: 110 million CNY, 170 million CNY, and 220 million CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 96.5%, 57.3%, and 28.9% respectively - Current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 73, 46, and 36 for the respective years [6][45]. Business Model and Growth Drivers - The company operates through three main business models: agency operations, brand management, and proprietary brands - The agency operations segment is expected to see a revenue decline initially, but brand management and proprietary brands are anticipated to drive significant growth, with expected revenue growth rates of 200%, 30%, and 15% for brand management, and 100%, 70%, and 35% for proprietary brands from 2024 to 2026 [10][43]. - The proprietary brand "Zhenjia" has shown remarkable growth, achieving 1.8 billion CNY in revenue in the first half of 2024, a 67.1% increase year-on-year [33]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established itself as a leading digital brand management firm in China, serving over 100 well-known domestic and international brands - It has a strong presence in the e-commerce sector, with a focus on online sales, contributing to 99.1% of its revenue in 2023 [15][29]. - The company has successfully transitioned to a full-chain brand management model, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [19][21].