Milkground(600882) 华鑫证券·2025-04-23 02:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated stronger-than-expected profit release, with significant improvements in profitability driven by increased cheese business revenue, improved gross margin, and reduced advertising expenses [5][6] - The dual-brand strategy with Mengniu is beginning to show positive effects, enhancing market presence and product innovation [6][9] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 1.233 billion and 82 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 6.3% and 114.9% [5] - The gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 31.49% and 6.68%, showing increases of 2.8 and 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was 120 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 29.7% [5] Business Segments - Revenue from cheese, trading, and liquid milk products in Q1 2025 was 1.030 billion, 101 million, and 95 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 23%, and 17% respectively [6] - The cheese business continues to grow rapidly, supported by product innovations and a focus on expanding the consumer base [6] Distribution Channels - In Q1 2025, revenue from distribution, direct sales, and trading channels was 959 million, 165 million, and 101 million yuan, with year-on-year increases of 31%, 26%, and 23% respectively [7] - The company has a stable network of 8,046 distributors, with a net increase of 249 distributors [7] Regional Performance - Revenue from the North, Central, and South regions in Q1 2025 was 464 million, 514 million, and 248 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 33%, and 32% respectively [7] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to see further improvements in profitability due to capacity ramp-up and cost control, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.42, 0.62, and 0.80 yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 63, 42, and 33 times [9][11]