SRBC(600039) 国盛证券·2025-04-23 03:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a new growth cycle in 2025 after experiencing a low point in profitability in 2024, with a projected revenue of 107.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.8% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 36.1 billion yuan for 2024, representing a dividend payout ratio of 50.02% [1] - The company has a strong order backlog of 2.913 trillion yuan, which is 2.7 times its projected revenue for 2024, indicating robust future revenue potential [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve a gross margin of 15.7%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to transitional impacts from project changes [2] - The net profit margin is expected to be 6.7%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company is forecasted to generate a net operating cash flow of 3.43 billion yuan in 2024, a significant improvement from a net outflow of 2.12 billion yuan in the previous year [2] Future Projections - The company’s net profit is projected to grow at a rate of 15% annually from 2025 to 2027, reaching 8.3 billion yuan in 2025, 9.6 billion yuan in 2026, and 11 billion yuan in 2027 [4] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.9, 7.7, and 6.7 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [4] Market Context - The company is expected to benefit from the high demand for infrastructure projects in Sichuan, supported by national strategic initiatives [3] - The company has been actively participating in high-margin projects, which are anticipated to contribute significantly to its revenue growth in the coming years [3]