POP MART(09992) 国金证券·2025-04-23 05:55Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue growth of approximately 165% to 170% year-on-year for Q1 2025, surpassing expectations, with domestic revenue increasing by 95% to 100% and overseas revenue soaring by 475% to 480% [2][3]. - The company's strategy of "dual improvement in quality and efficiency" is validated by strong domestic performance, driven by innovative IP products and successful collaborations [3]. - The overseas market is experiencing explosive growth, particularly in the Americas and Europe, indicating effective strategic expansion [3][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - Q1 2025 revenue growth is reported at 165% to 170% year-on-year, with domestic revenue up by 95% to 100% and overseas revenue up by 475% to 480% [2]. Operational Analysis - Domestic market performance is strong, with offline revenue increasing by 85% to 90% and online revenue by 140% to 145%, driven by innovative marketing strategies [3]. - Overseas revenue growth is highlighted, with Asia-Pacific up by 345% to 350%, the Americas by 895% to 900%, and Europe by 600% to 605%, confirming the effectiveness of the company's strategic focus on these regions [3]. IP Development and Monetization - The company is enhancing its global organizational structure to support regional strategies, which is expected to facilitate mid-term growth [4]. - The establishment of a supply chain in Vietnam is anticipated to mitigate tariff impacts and strengthen the pricing power of IP products [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.36 billion, 8.59 billion, and 11.06 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 86.8%, 35%, and 28.9% [5]. - The current price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 36x, 26x, and 20x for the respective years [5]. Financial Metrics - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 23.06 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 76.86% [9]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted increase of 185.85% in 2024 [9].