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常熟银行首次覆盖报告:小微特色鲜明护城河深厚,风险随周期小幅波动ROE稳步提升

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 8.82 CNY per share based on a 20% valuation premium over the average PB of comparable companies [4][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading small and micro enterprise bank, benefiting from a strong local economy and a well-established business model that emphasizes small loans and digital transformation [11][21]. - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is expected to maintain a leading position, with projections indicating a steady increase in profitability [11][4]. - The bank's asset quality is resilient across economic cycles, supported by favorable policies for small and micro enterprises, ensuring controllable credit costs [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 2001, the company has grown to a total asset size of 366.6 billion CNY by the end of 2024, marking a 9.6% year-on-year increase [26]. - The bank has a strong focus on small and micro enterprises, with a significant portion of its business dedicated to this segment [38]. Business Expansion - The bank has strategically expanded its presence beyond its home market, with 35.9% of its branches located outside its primary area, and it controls 34 village banks across multiple provinces [30][32]. - Revenue contributions from these branches and village banks have increased, with the share of revenue from outside the home region rising significantly [32]. Financial Performance - The bank's projected net profit growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 12.8%, 11.2%, and 13.1%, respectively, with corresponding BVPS of 10.52, 11.92, and 13.51 CNY [4][6]. - The bank's net interest margin is expected to remain favorable due to a strategy focused on small loans and high-interest deposits maturing [3][4]. Risk Management - The bank's credit quality is expected to remain superior to its peers, with a non-performing loan ratio consistently below industry averages, supported by robust risk control measures [3][4]. - The bank maintains a provision coverage ratio above 500%, indicating strong preparedness for potential credit losses [3].