HLGF(600346) 东海证券·2025-04-23 06:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price over the next six months [9][11]. Core Views - The company's earnings are expected to show resilience, with a projected EPS of 1.10 yuan for 2025, 1.57 yuan for 2026, and 1.83 yuan for 2027, reflecting a PE ratio of 14.15, 9.90, and 8.52 respectively based on the closing price as of April 22, 2025 [7][9]. - The company is positioned to benefit from a new cycle of refining industry prosperity due to its integrated cost advantages and strong market position as a leading private refining enterprise [7][9]. - The report highlights the company's robust cash flow and reduced capital expenditures, which support its long-term dividend-paying capability [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 236.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.65%, and a net profit of 7.04 billion yuan, up 2.01% year-on-year [9]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 57.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.34% year-on-year, but a sequential improvement in net profit by 5.78% [9]. Cost and Pricing Dynamics - The report notes a decline in energy costs, with Brent crude oil averaging $80 per barrel in 2024, down 2.8% year-on-year, which enhances the company's cost advantages [9]. - The company is expected to benefit from the integration of oil and coal, with a continued favorable supply-demand balance in the coal market [9]. Product Development and Market Expansion - The company has successfully launched several new polyester materials, with sales reaching 5.64 million tons in 2024, a 38% increase year-on-year, contributing significantly to revenue [9]. - Ongoing projects in functional film production and lithium battery separators are expected to further enhance the company's market position and profitability [9]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company maintained a dividend payout ratio of 44.97% in 2024, with a total dividend amounting to 3.168 billion yuan, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [9].