利率专题：“支持性货币政策”再思考

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the beginning of 2025, the capital market has been in a tight - balanced state, and the bond market has been in a "liability shortage" situation. The key lies in the change of policy focus and the switch of operation means in different periods, rather than the change of the overall loose state of the monetary policy [1][25]. - The implementation rhythm of "dual cuts" (reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut) depends on the further development of internal and external situations. If monetary easing is implemented, reserve requirement ratio cuts may precede interest rate cuts, and interest rate cuts may face some constraints, while structural monetary policy tools may become an important means [3][36]. - For the bond market, the increase in government bond supply may have an impact on the short - end, and the key lies in the central bank's coordinated operations. The ultra - long - end may fluctuate but may present trading opportunities after adjustment, and there may be opportunities to go long on 5 - 10 - year varieties [4][40]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 From the Tight Capital Market at the Beginning of the Year - In 2025 Q1, the capital market was in a tight - balanced state, and the bond market was in a "liability shortage" situation. The reasons include the bond market entering the "negative carry" state and the contraction of large banks' non - bank deposits, resulting in a decrease in the net supply of funds in the banking system [1][9]. - The central bank's relatively cautious open - market operations in Q1, the failure of "dual cuts", and the net withdrawal of funds at most times led to high - running capital interest rates and the deepening of the inversion between overnight and 7 - day capital interest rates [9]. - The rectification of "manual interest compensation" and the new regulations on non - bank inter - bank deposit self - discipline led to the contraction of large banks' non - bank deposits, especially from December 2024 to January 2025, when the year - on - year growth rate of large banks' non - bank deposits dropped significantly [13]. - Before the end of the quarter, the central bank increased open - market investment, and with the return of fiscal investment, the pressure on the liability side of banks decreased, and the bond market showed a post - decline repair market [20]. 3.2 Re - understanding of "Moderate Easing" - After the end of the quarter, the open - market investment improved significantly, the capital interest rate center decreased, and the pattern of capital supply and demand improved, which may be related to the continuous evolution of tariff policies and the implementation of expansionary fiscal policies [2][21]. - "Supportive monetary policy" can be understood as supporting economic growth and supporting the implementation of expansionary fiscal policies. The central bank can support and cooperate through measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and increased open - market investment [21][22]. - "Opportune reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" have three meanings: adverse changes in the economic fundamentals, weakening of the effects of expansionary fiscal policies, and sharp declines in the capital market [25]. 3.3 Outlook on the Rhythm of Future Monetary Easing - The implementation rhythm of "dual cuts" depends on the further development of internal and external situations. Currently, the impact of tariff games on the economy is not fully apparent, and the central bank has diverse ways to supply liquidity [3][31]. - In Q2, government bonds may continue to increase in volume. The central bank can use MLF, repurchase, and restart treasury bond trading to maintain liquidity [31][32]. - If monetary easing is implemented, reserve requirement ratio cuts may precede interest rate cuts. Interest rate cuts may face constraints due to external uncertainties, bank interest margin pressure, and exchange rate stability requirements. Structural monetary policy tools may become an important means [36][37]. - For the bond market, the increase in government bond supply may affect the short - end, and the key lies in the central bank's operations. The ultra - long - end may fluctuate but may present trading opportunities after adjustment, and there may be opportunities to go long on 5 - 10 - year varieties [4][40].