GDTC(688186) 民生证券·2025-04-23 08:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.003 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 115 million yuan, up 4.97% year-on-year [3]. - The wind power bidding is accelerating, with significant growth expected in the gearbox project, supported by a substantial contract signed with Mingyang Smart Energy worth 1.505 billion yuan [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 4.003 billion yuan, with a net profit of 115 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 74 million yuan [3]. - In Q4 2024, revenue reached 1.044 billion yuan, a 25.31% increase year-on-year, while the net profit turned positive at 35 million yuan [3]. - For Q1 2025, revenue was 1.122 billion yuan, up 25.75% year-on-year, with a net profit of 74 million yuan, marking a significant increase of 1488.76% year-on-year [3]. Sales Volume and Profitability - The overall sales volume in 2024 was 311,000 tons, a 7.31% increase year-on-year, with notable growth in wind power main shafts and gearbox components [4]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 16.62%, an increase of 1.96 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 gross margins at 19.71% and 19.33%, respectively [4]. Market Outlook - The wind power installation capacity reached 520.68 GW in 2024, with a new installed capacity of 79.82 GW, reflecting a 6% year-on-year growth [5]. - The company is expanding its gearbox project, which is expected to see increased production capacity and improved profitability due to higher operational efficiency and reduced fixed costs [5]. Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 318 million yuan, 409 million yuan, and 500 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17x, 13x, and 11x [7][6].