国投电力（600886）：火电量价同比承压，水电托底经营表现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company's hydropower generation increased by 17.90% year-on-year in Q1 2025, driven by the release of stored energy from the Yarlung Tsangpo River and favorable water inflow at major hydropower stations [2][6] - The average on-grid electricity price for the company in Q1 2025 was 0.355 CNY/kWh, a decrease of 0.032 CNY/kWh year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in the proportion of high-priced thermal power generation and a decline in long-term trading prices for thermal power in some regions [2][6] - The company's thermal power generation decreased by 32.35% year-on-year in Q1 2025, but significant cost optimization is expected to support the performance of the thermal power segment [2][6] Summary by Sections Hydropower Performance - In Q1 2025, the company completed hydropower generation of 252.71 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 17.90%, mainly due to the release of stored energy and favorable water conditions [2][6] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station generated 232.37 billion kWh, up 18.38% year-on-year, while the Dazhaoshan and Xiaosansha hydropower stations also saw increases of 18.09% and 2.95% respectively [2][6] Thermal Power Performance - The company's thermal power generation was 102.87 billion kWh in Q1 2025, down 32.35% year-on-year, influenced by weak electricity demand and competition from clean energy [2][6] - The average price of thermal power is expected to decline due to adjustments in long-term trading prices in some regions [2][6] - Coal prices have significantly decreased, with the average price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal at 721.22 CNY/ton, down 180.52 CNY/ton year-on-year, which is expected to lead to cost optimization for the thermal power segment [2][6] Financial Projections - The company forecasts EPS of 0.86 CNY, 0.94 CNY, and 1.05 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17.03, 15.63, and 13.94 [2][6]