Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Arrow Home Group [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported 2024 total revenue and net profit of RMB 7.131 billion and RMB 67 million, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7% and 84% [1]. - The management aims for a 10% year-on-year revenue growth in 2025, targeting a net profit of RMB 400 million, with retail channels expected to drive growth [2]. - Despite the anticipated support from the old-for-new policy, the report maintains a conservative outlook on the company's performance due to ongoing challenges in the real estate market and consumer confidence [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, total revenue is projected at RMB 7.131 billion, with a gross profit margin of 23.8% [6]. - The company experienced a net loss of RMB 73 million in Q1 2025, with a gross margin improvement to 27% [1]. - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027, reflecting changes in performance expectations, with a new target price of RMB 6.3 [3][8]. Market and Competitive Landscape - Arrow Home Group is the leading domestic bathroom brand in China, particularly in the low-penetration smart toilet market [7]. - The management noted that approximately 60-70% of offline stores participated in the old-for-new policy, benefiting more from this initiative compared to online channels [2]. - The smart toilet segment is expected to recover, with sales prices stabilizing in Q1 2025 after a decline in previous periods [2].
箭牌家居：2024年和1Q25业绩分析：1~2月份的疲软表现导致1Q25业绩低于预期，但3月份改善；中性-20250423