关税：技术限制双压下的政策突围

Trade Policy Analysis - The Trump administration's trade policy aims to reform the trade system to increase tax revenue, promote investment, and boost employment, with a focus on reducing trade deficits[5] - In 2023, the U.S. current account deficit reached $905.38 billion, accounting for 3.27$784.89 billion, with a goods trade deficit of $1,063.29 billion[10] - The U.S. has a persistent trade deficit with China, Europe, and North America, with the trade deficits in February 2025 being$40.61 billion with Europe, $21.49 billion with North America, and$21.17 billion with China[10] U.S. Economic Structure - The U.S. manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP has declined to 10% in 2024, while the financial, insurance, and real estate sectors account for 21.2%[18] - Since 2006, U.S. manufacturing productivity has stagnated, with the total factor productivity index dropping from 101.19 in 2006 to 97.81 in 2023[17] - The U.S. labor cost index increased from 86.48 in 2006 to 129.29 in 2023, outpacing productivity growth[17] Trade Relations with China - The U.S. has escalated export controls and investment restrictions against China, with significant measures introduced during Trump's presidency[36] - The focus has shifted from tariffs to intellectual property rights, with potential legislation aimed at controlling technology transfers to China[35] - The U.S. has implemented a series of export control measures targeting high-tech sectors, significantly impacting China's access to advanced technologies[42] Strategic Recommendations for China - China should enhance its core technology capabilities and diversify its supply chains to mitigate the impact of U.S. restrictions[61] - Strengthening multilateral cooperation and increasing exports to non-U.S. markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, is crucial for maintaining trade resilience[60] - Establishing a robust legal framework to counter U.S. sanctions and export controls is essential for protecting national interests[61]