东鹏饮料（605499）：业绩快速增长，新品持续放量增长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company has achieved rapid revenue growth, with Q1 2025 revenue and net profit reaching 4.848 billion and 980 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 39.23% and 47.62% [1]. - The product line is expanding, with "Dongpeng Water" and other beverages contributing to a 19% share of total revenue in Q1 2025 [1]. - The company is actively expanding its market presence, with significant growth in regions outside of Guangdong, with some areas seeing growth rates exceeding 50% [1]. - The average dealer size has increased by 25% year-on-year, indicating improved dealer quality [2]. Financial Performance - The gross margin improved by 1.70 percentage points to 44.47%, while the net profit margin increased by 1.15 percentage points to 20.21% [3]. - Sales expenses increased by 36% due to higher advertising and promotional costs [3]. - Operating cash flow decreased by 27% year-on-year to 631 million yuan, primarily due to increased year-end bonuses and tax payments [3]. Future Outlook - The company aims for a revenue and net profit growth target of no less than 20% for 2025, with expectations for continued growth from "Dongpeng Water" and new product launches [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 20.607 billion, 25.731 billion, and 31.540 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 30%, 25%, and 23% [4]. - The expected net profit for the same period is projected to be 4.501 billion, 5.744 billion, and 7.160 billion yuan, with growth rates of 35%, 28%, and 25% [4]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 11.263 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 32.42% [5]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 8.65 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 32.41 [5]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 145.884 billion yuan [7].