甘源食品（002991）：25Q1业绩承压，静待后续改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 2.26 billion and net profit of 376 million in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 22.18% and 14.32% respectively. However, Q1 2025 shows a decline in revenue and net profit by 13.99% and 42.21% respectively [1] - The company has launched multiple new products in Spring 2025, including flavored nuts and snacks, which are anticipated to contribute to revenue growth [1] - The overseas business is projected to continue its high growth, with significant revenue increases in various regions, particularly in e-commerce and overseas markets [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 35.46% and a net margin of 16.67%, both showing slight declines compared to the previous year. The sales expense ratio increased due to higher salaries and promotional costs [3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 163 million (including tax) for 2024, with a total cash return and share buyback expected to reach 323 million, accounting for 85.82% of the net profit [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.61 billion, 3.01 billion, and 3.46 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 409 million, 489 million, and 580 million, indicating growth rates of 9%, 20%, and 19% [4] Market and Product Strategy - The company is focusing on product innovation to meet market demand and is enhancing its multi-channel distribution strategy, particularly through Sam's Club and overseas markets [4] - The number of distributors has increased by 574 to a total of 3,732, with average distributor revenue rising by 3.72% to 520,000 per distributor [2] Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have a P/E ratio of 16X, 14X, and 11X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [4]