境外债专题：城投境外债风云再起？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report focuses on the issuance, current stock performance, and future maturity pressure of Chinese overseas bonds in 2025, especially for urban investment overseas bonds. It analyzes the differences in the issuance scale, interest rates, and distribution characteristics between dim - sum bonds and US - dollar bonds, and provides insights into the maturity pressure of different regions and time periods [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - level New Issuance - In 2025 (as of April 16, 2025), the issuance scale of dim - sum bonds and urban investment dim - sum bonds decreased compared to previous years, while the issuance scale of Chinese US - dollar bonds and urban investment US - dollar bonds increased. The scale of Chinese US - dollar bonds increased by over 40% compared to the same period last year, and the issuance scale of urban investment US - dollar bonds even doubled [1][8]. - The issuance interest rates of dim - sum bonds and urban investment dim - sum bonds decreased in 2025, while those of Chinese US - dollar bonds and urban investment US - dollar bonds first increased and then decreased. The issuance interest rate of urban investment dim - sum bonds was around 5.5%, and that of Chinese US - dollar bonds was around 5%, while urban investment US - dollar bonds had an interest rate around 6% [1][15]. 3.2 Current Stock Performance 3.2.1 Distribution Characteristics of Stock Chinese Overseas Bonds - As of April 16, 2025, the stock scale of dim - sum bonds was 1252 billion yuan, and that of Chinese US - dollar bonds was 825.4 billion US dollars, both increasing compared to the end of 2024. Dim - sum bonds were mainly financial bonds (64%), followed by urban investment bonds (21%, with a scale of 255.7 billion yuan). Chinese US - dollar bonds were mainly industrial bonds, and urban investment bonds accounted for only 12% (95.7 billion US dollars) [2][19]. - In terms of ratings, 43% of the stock dim - sum bonds were unrated, 56% were investment - grade, and high - yield dim - sum bonds accounted for only 1%. For Chinese US - dollar bonds, the investment - grade proportion was 70%, and the scale and proportion of unrated and high - yield bonds were similar [21]. 3.2.2 Distribution Characteristics of Stock Urban Investment Overseas Bonds - In terms of rating types, stock urban investment dim - sum bonds were mainly unrated (79%), followed by investment - grade. Stock urban investment US - dollar bonds were mainly investment - grade (58%) [24]. - For domestic entity ratings, urban investment dim - sum bonds were mainly AA + (36%), and AAA and unrated both accounted for 21%. For urban investment US - dollar bonds, the combined proportion of AAA and AA + reached 77% [26]. - In terms of administrative levels, stock urban investment dim - sum bonds had a relatively high proportion of prefecture - level cities/municipal districts and county - level regions, accounting for 43% and 40% respectively. For stock urban investment US - dollar bonds, prefecture - level cities/municipal districts accounted for the highest proportion (40%), followed by county - level regions (22%) [29]. - In terms of regional distribution, 22 provinces had stock urban investment dim - sum bonds, with Shandong having the largest stock scale (69.1 billion yuan), followed by Zhejiang (44.8 billion yuan). 26 provinces had stock urban investment US - dollar bonds, with Zhejiang having the largest scale (17.2 billion US dollars), followed by Shandong (16.9 billion US dollars) [30]. - The coupon distribution of urban investment dim - sum bonds was relatively concentrated between 3% - 4% and 4% - 5%, with a combined proportion of 60%. For urban investment US - dollar bonds, the coupon distribution was relatively concentrated between 5% - 6% and 6% - 7%, with a combined proportion of 57% [32]. - In terms of the term structure, the maturity scale of stock urban investment dim - sum bonds was relatively concentrated in 2026 and 2027, accounting for 85% of the total scale. For stock urban investment US - dollar bonds, the maturity scale in 2025 was the largest, accounting for 30% of the total scale, and those in 2026 and 2027 accounted for 23% and 28% respectively [37]. 3.3 Future Maturity Situation - Provinces such as Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Fujian, Sichuan, Hubei, and Guangdong had relatively large maturity scales for urban investment dim - sum bonds and urban investment US - dollar bonds. Shandong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu had relatively large maturity pressure for urban investment US - dollar bonds in 2025 [3][40]. - Focusing on the maturity pressure of urban investment overseas bonds in each province within 2025, Shandong had a relatively large maturity scale in June; Zhejiang had a relatively uniform monthly maturity scale, with a relatively larger scale in September; Jiangsu had relatively larger maturity scales in June, September, and November; Fujian also had a relatively large maturity scale in June [3][42].