Group 1 - The report highlights that gold prices have reached new historical highs, with spot gold surpassing 3490 per ounce as of April 22 [2][13]. - Following the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, gold prices initially declined, but this drop was attributed to margin calls rather than short positions, as indicated by CFTC data [2][13]. - After April 8, gold prices rebounded significantly, with an increase of 9.63% by April 17 [2][13]. Group 2 - The recent rise in gold prices is not driven by speculative investors, as the long positions on COMEX have remained relatively stable without significant inflows of speculative funds [16][20]. - Gold ETFs have seen a net inflow of approximately 52.1 tons from April 4 to April 11, primarily from North America and Asia [20][36]. - The price movements suggest that the recent surge in gold prices has been mainly driven by the Asian market, as significant price fluctuations occurred during Asian trading hours [26]. Group 3 - The report argues that Japanese long-term funds are not significant buyers of gold, as recent data indicates that Japanese insurance companies have been selling U.S. Treasuries to purchase Japanese bonds instead [28][29]. - Prior to April 11, domestic ETFs were the main source of gold demand, with four of the top ten gold ETFs being from China [36]. - The report suggests that the recent price increases may have been driven by purchases from the People's Bank of China, which can trade directly in the London OTC market, thus not affecting the Shanghai Gold Exchange premiums [36][39]. Group 4 - The report indicates that the current rise in gold prices has structural support, with speculative positions on the New York Mercantile Exchange remaining at moderate levels [40]. - The momentum structure of gold is considered strong, suggesting that even if there are short-term corrections, the long-term investment value remains intact [40].
黄金研究系列：资产配置专题报告，从交易视角看，“对等关税”后黄金这波上涨是什么力量推动的？
中泰证券·2025-04-23 14:43