海外经济政策跟踪：“特朗普-鲍威尔”博弈下的降息预期反复波动

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. industrial output fell by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 0.4% in March, marking a decline for two consecutive months[7] - The U.S. industrial capacity utilization slightly decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 77.8% in March, while manufacturing capacity utilization rose by 0.2 percentage points to 77.3%[7] - The U.S. retail sales growth rate increased to 4.6% year-on-year in March, up by 1.1 percentage points from February[13] Group 2: Market Expectations - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve will implement four rate cuts in 2025, with a total reduction of 100 basis points, up from the previous week's expectation of 75 basis points[14] - The anticipated rate cuts are scheduled for June, July, October, and December 2025[14] - The market's inflation expectations show a decline in the 5-year inflation expectation to 2.26%, down 7 basis points from the previous week, while the 10-year expectation rose to 2.23%, up 3 basis points[14] Group 3: Global Asset Performance - Major global stock markets mostly rose, with the Nikkei 225 up by 3.4%, the Hang Seng Index up by 2.3%, and the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.2%[6] - Brent crude oil futures increased by 5.0%, COMEX copper rose by 3.3%, and London gold rose by 2.7% during the week[6] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 14 basis points to 4.34%[6] Group 4: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve indicated that there is no immediate need for rate cuts, emphasizing the importance of maintaining inflation expectations[29] - The European Central Bank's rate decisions will be data-dependent, with a recent cut of 25 basis points aligning with expectations[30] - The Bank of Japan's interest rate adjustments will depend on economic outlooks, with a focus on achieving inflation targets[31]