斯里兰卡发展更新，2025年4月：保持正轨

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The economy continues to recover, with growth, fiscal balances, and external buffers exceeding expectations in 2024. However, household incomes, employment, and non-monetary welfare remain well below pre-crisis levels [20] - Medium-term growth is expected to remain modest due to the scarring effects of the crisis, structural impediments to growth, and significant global economic uncertainties [20] - Continued macroeconomic stability and successful implementation of structural reforms are crucial for medium-term growth and poverty reduction [20] Context - The Sri Lankan economy is emerging from its worst post-independence economic crisis, characterized by a sharp economic contraction, high inflation, currency depreciation, and a rapid fall in international reserves [21] - The government implemented a series of reforms to restore macroeconomic stability, including cost-reflective utility pricing, new revenue measures, and prudent monetary policy [23] - Following these reforms, the economy began to stabilize from mid-2023, with positive quarterly GDP growth, easing inflation, and improved public debt-to-GDP ratios [24] Recent Developments - The economy grew by 5 percent in 2024, surpassing the previous projection of 4.4 percent [30] - Growth was driven by a rebound in industry (11 percent y-o-y) and a strong performance in tourism-related services (2.4 percent y-o-y) [32] - Inflation dropped significantly, reaching -4.2 percent y-o-y in February 2025, driven by adjustments in energy prices and subdued household demand [38] Fiscal Performance - The primary balance recorded a surplus of 2.2 percent of GDP, surpassing expectations [73] - Tax revenues increased from 9.9 to 12.4 percent of GDP between 2023 and 2024, primarily driven by VAT collections [77] - The fiscal deficit is estimated to have fallen to 6.8 percent of GDP, limited by a high interest bill amounting to 9 percent of GDP [79] Debt Indicators - The stock of public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt is estimated to have fallen from 111.7 percent of GDP at end-2023 to 102.4 percent at end-2024 [85] - Debt restructuring has made significant progress, with bilateral agreements being finalized to restructure US$10 billion of official and Exim Bank of China debt [90] Poverty and Vulnerability - The poverty rate was 24.5 percent in 2024, nearly double what it was in 2019, with household incomes remaining below pre-crisis levels [93] - Malnutrition increased, raising concerns over long-term impacts on human capital formation [94] - Employment and real wages remain below pre-crisis levels, contributing to increased emigration [98] Outlook - Medium-term growth is expected to be modest at around 3.1 percent, with the current account projected to revert to a modest deficit in 2025 [103] - Poverty is expected to decline to 22.7 percent in 2025, but the economic crisis is anticipated to have reversed a decade of poverty reduction [104] - Continued macro stability and successful implementation of structural reforms are critical for growth and poverty reduction [111]