交银国际每日晨报-20250424

Group 1: Nvidia (NVDA US) - Export controls have exceeded expectations, leading to a downward revision of earnings forecasts and target price, with a new target price of $152, down from$168, indicating a potential upside of 53.7% [3][4] - The company reported a $5.5 billion inventory impairment for FY1Q26 due to difficulties in obtaining export licenses for its H20 chip, which may impact approximately$12 billion in revenue [3] - Financial impacts for FY2H26 are considered manageable, with the Blackwell series products expected to become Nvidia's main offerings post-FY3Q26, and domestic alternatives like Huawei's Ascend 910C may accelerate the shift towards local chip replacements [3] Group 2: Kangfang Biopharma (9926 HK) - The second head-to-head Phase III trial of Ivosidenib has been successful, with the first self-immune product approved, leading to an upward revision of the target price to HKD 115, reflecting a potential upside of 30.1% [5][10] - The approval of the first self-immune product, Ilumya (IL-12/IL-23), for moderate to severe plaque psoriasis showcases significant advantages over competitors, including rapid efficacy and improved patient quality of life [6] - The company is set to initiate a Phase III trial for Ivosidenib combined with chemotherapy for PD-(L)1 refractory NSCLC, expanding its treatment scenarios to a large patient population [5] Group 3: Gaotu (GOTU US) - The company is expected to exceed Q1 2025 revenue and profit forecasts, with a projected 51% year-on-year revenue growth, driven by innovative "star + AI" courses [11] - The gross margin is anticipated to improve to 70% due to better-than-expected revenue and improved offline business profitability, with an adjusted operating profit forecast of 26 million [11] - The target price remains at $4.60, reflecting a 71% potential upside, as the company maintains its full-year revenue and profit expectations [11]