氯碱日报：需求支撑不足，烧碱低位震荡-20250424

Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - PVC is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern due to high absolute inventory, sufficient supply, and weak short - term demand. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of maintenance and the recovery of downstream demand [3][4] - Caustic soda's supply is expected to tighten slightly under maintenance expectations, but downstream demand has short - term replenishment with limited duration. The supply - demand drive is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly stable. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement rhythm and the fulfillment of device maintenance [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 5006 yuan/ton (+71), the East China basis was - 196 yuan/ton (-71), and the South China basis was - 156 yuan/ton (-66) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4810 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4850 yuan/ton (+5) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 605 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2980 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 206 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit was - 560 yuan/ton (+221), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit was - 566 yuan/ton (+62), and the PVC export profit was 14.1 US dollars/ton (+3.9) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC was 41.1 tons (-4.0), the social inventory was 44.1 tons (-0.9), the calcium carbide method operation rate was 78.00% (-1.00%), the ethylene method operation rate was 67.00% (+2.00%), and the overall operation rate was 75.00% (+0.00%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 56.8 tons (+0.8) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2496 yuan/ton (+106), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 67 yuan/ton (-137) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 820 yuan/ton (-10), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda was 1480 yuan/ton (-30) [2] - Upstream production profit: The profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1546 yuan/ton (-31), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 664.8 yuan/ton (-151.3), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 162.79 yuan/ton (-21.25), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1511.95 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 42.00 tons (-5.10), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories was 2.45 tons (+0.00), and the operation rate of caustic soda was 82.30% (-1.50%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation: The operation rate of alumina was 78.54% (-1.75%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 61.94% (-2.44%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber was 78.22% (-5.39%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: Many new devices are under maintenance, and some previously shut - down and maintained devices are gradually resuming. The PVC operation rate fluctuates slightly. Future maintenance is still intensive, and the export is improving, which will relieve the domestic supply pressure. However, attention should be paid to the sustainability of exports [3] - Demand side: The operation rate of downstream product enterprises has decreased, and the terminal purchasing enthusiasm is not high. The domestic demand is still weak. The PVC price is dragged down by the weak demand in the short term [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: Two new chlor - alkali enterprises are under maintenance, and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate has decreased. Future maintenance is still high, and the supply may tighten periodically [3] - Demand side: The non - aluminum industry and downstream traders have increased their replenishment, and the factory inventory has decreased. But the non - aluminum demand is still weak, the operation rate of some industries has declined, and the replenishment rhythm has slowed down. The alumina market is weak, which also drags down the caustic soda demand [3] Strategy - PVC: Neutral. Maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern, pay attention to the fulfillment of maintenance and the recovery of downstream demand [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral. The price is expected to be weakly stable, pay attention to downstream procurement rhythm and the fulfillment of device maintenance [4]