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登康口腔(001328):2024A、2025Q1:电商提速+结构优化,商业模式渐入佳境

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 1.56 billion, 161 million, and 135 million yuan in 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 13%, 14%, and 27% respectively [2][6] - The fourth quarter of 2024 is projected to see significant growth, with revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items increasing by 39%, 29%, and 119% respectively [2][6] - For the first quarter of 2025, the company anticipates revenue of 430 million yuan, net profit attributable to the parent of 43 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 36 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 19%, 16%, and 27% respectively [2][6] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The company is leveraging e-commerce channels to enhance brand exposure and reshape market dynamics, with significant improvements in team building, advertising strategies, and product launches [8] - In Q1, the company's cold acid spirit product on Douyin saw a GMV increase of over 300%, while Tmall's GMV grew by 77% [8] Product Pricing and Structure - The company is focusing on high-functionality and marketing characteristics of toothpaste, with the "7-day repair" series rapidly increasing its market share, accounting for 70%-80% of sales on Douyin by the end of 2024 [8] - The average price per hundred grams reached 26.6 yuan, surpassing its mainstream price level of 10-13 yuan and exceeding the popular Yunnan Baiyao series [8] Financial Performance - The company expects to see a dual increase in gross sales and slight profit growth, with gross margin, sales expense ratio, and net profit margin showing improvements in 2024 and Q1 2025 [14] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 203 million, 260 million, and 328 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 36, 28, and 22 times [14]