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登康口腔(001328):24Q4业绩增长提速,电商引领高增

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [11]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 showed significant acceleration in growth, primarily driven by the rapid expansion of e-commerce channels and product structure upgrades, leading to a substantial increase in gross margin. The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's brand momentum and steady high growth [3][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 1,376 million, projected to grow to 1,560 million in 2024, 1,900 million in 2025, 2,294 million in 2026, and 2,756 million in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 4.8%, 13.4%, 21.8%, 20.7%, and 20.2% respectively [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 141 million in 2023, expected to rise to 161 million in 2024, 201 million in 2025, 251 million in 2026, and 304 million in 2027, with growth rates of 5.0%, 14.1%, 24.8%, 24.7%, and 21.2% respectively [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.82 in 2023 to 0.94 in 2024, 1.17 in 2025, 1.46 in 2026, and 1.77 in 2027 [5]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 10.32 million from distribution, 0.41 million from direct supply, and 4.81 million from e-commerce, with year-on-year growth rates of 4%, -24%, and 52% respectively. The e-commerce segment's contribution increased to 31% [11]. - The adult toothpaste segment was the main growth driver, with revenues of 12.47 million, reflecting a 16% increase. The oral medical and beauty care products also showed strong growth, with a 35% increase in revenue [11]. Margin Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 49.37%, an increase of 5.26 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the high-margin products in the e-commerce channel. The gross margin is expected to further improve to 55.51% in Q1 2025 [11].