国泰海通晨报-20250424

Group 1: Fixed Income and Policy Insights - The current focus of Chinese policy is on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, with limited active compression of convertible bond valuations [1][4] - The expectation of policies to boost domestic demand has been increasing since April 8, leading to a rally in sectors such as retail, food and beverage, military, and real estate [4] - The performance of convertible bonds is sensitive to market sentiment, particularly during earnings announcements and trade tensions, with a notable increase in the number of convertible bonds trading below their bond floor [3][5] Group 2: Environmental Sector Insights - The weekly transaction volume for carbon emissions allowances (CEA) reached 1.5 million tons, with an average transaction price of 83 yuan/ton, while local carbon quotas saw a transaction volume of 160,000 tons at an average price of 59 yuan/ton [2][7] - Recommended stocks in the environmental sector include Qingda Environmental Protection, Longjing Environmental Protection, and Sand Technology, which are expected to benefit from the carbon market dynamics [2][6] Group 3: Transportation Sector Insights - The express delivery industry saw a year-on-year growth of 21.6% in Q1 2025, exceeding the annual growth forecast of over 8% by the postal administration [9][28] - The market concentration in the express delivery sector is increasing, with the CR8 index rising to 86.9 in Q1 2025, indicating a shift towards larger companies amid intensified price competition [10][29] - The revenue for the express delivery industry grew by 10.9% in Q1 2025, although the average revenue per package declined by 8.8%, reflecting heightened competition among leading firms [11][31] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on convertible bonds that benefit from domestic demand policies, including those in consumption, infrastructure, and real estate sectors [5] - In the express delivery sector, companies such as ZTO Express, SF Holding, YTO Express, and JD Logistics are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the expected growth in demand and market consolidation [12][32]