CGN POWER(003816) 银河证券·2025-04-24 08:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) [3][5]. Core Views - Short-term fluctuations do not alter the long-term growth certainty of CGN, with expectations of stable revenue and profit growth despite recent challenges [5]. - The company reported a revenue of 20.028 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.41%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.026 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.07% [5]. - The decline in profit is attributed to lower market electricity prices and increased operational costs, particularly due to the commissioning of new units and rising fuel costs [5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2024A: 86,804.41 million yuan - 2025E: 86,781.61 million yuan - 2026E: 92,257.27 million yuan - 2027E: 99,473.03 million yuan - Revenue growth rates are projected at 5.16% for 2024, -0.03% for 2025, 6.31% for 2026, and 7.82% for 2027 [2][7]. - Net Profit Forecast: - 2024A: 10,813.87 million yuan - 2025E: 10,439.88 million yuan - 2026E: 11,088.06 million yuan - 2027E: 12,221.10 million yuan - Profit growth rates are expected to be 0.83% for 2024, -3.46% for 2025, 6.21% for 2026, and 10.22% for 2027 [2][7]. - Gross Margin: - 2024A: 34.03% - 2025E: 31.45% - 2026E: 31.56% - 2027E: 31.80% - The gross margin is expected to decline due to increased operational costs [2][7]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024A: 0.21 yuan - 2025E: 0.21 yuan - 2026E: 0.22 yuan - 2027E: 0.24 yuan [2][7]. Investment Opportunities - The approval of convertible bonds is expected to enhance project construction, with significant growth potential in the long term, as the company plans to commission multiple new units from 2025 to 2030 [5]. - The report highlights the potential cost savings from the continuous settlement trial in the Liaoning electricity market, which could positively impact CGN's auxiliary service expenses [5].