NOVEL(002014) 浙商证券·2025-04-24 08:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a steady growth in Q1 2025, achieving revenue of 848 million (up 2% YoY) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 89 million (up 3% YoY) [1][2] - The film business continues to grow rapidly, contributing significantly to revenue growth, while the printing business faces pricing pressure due to weak downstream demand [2][3] - The company is expanding its production capacity with new projects, ensuring long-term revenue growth [3] - Cost control measures are in place, and a potential improvement in gross margin is expected in Q2 2025 due to declining raw material prices [4] Revenue Summary - Q1 2025 revenue was 848 million, with the printing business facing a 3% decline in revenue but a 0.5% increase in sales volume [2] - The film business is expected to continue its rapid growth, significantly contributing to revenue in Q1 2025 [2] Profitability Summary - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 21.30%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points YoY, primarily due to pricing pressure in the printing business and a higher proportion of lower-margin film products [4] - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 62.26% YoY, indicating improved sales collection capabilities [4] Capacity and Investment Summary - The company is actively expanding its production capacity with new projects, including a 22,000-ton functional film material expansion project and a 40,000-ton smart printing factory project [3] - The expected return on investment for these projects is 32.7% and 43.59%, with payback periods of approximately 3.15 years and 3.21 years, respectively [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.89 billion, 4.29 billion, and 4.76 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 508 million, 562 million, and 631 million [5] - The company is considered a high-dividend, stable growth stock with a current PE ratio of 13.77X for 2025 [5]