CHINA PET FOODS(002891) 开源证券·2025-04-24 11:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in staple food business and rapid expansion in the domestic market. The revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 are projected to be 4.465 billion and 394 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 19.15% and 68.89% [4][5] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 upwards due to better-than-expected growth in staple food products, with net profits expected to reach 473 million, 561 million, and 655 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][5] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue and net profit of 1.276 billion and 112 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 23.31% and 98.20% [4] - For Q1 2025, revenue and net profit are expected to be 1.101 billion and 91 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 25.41% and 62.13% [4] - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 are 28.16% and 9.33%, respectively, showing improvements from the previous year [5] Sales and Market Expansion - The company achieved a sales volume of 127,700 tons in pet food and supplies in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28.24%, primarily driven by a significant increase in staple food production [6] - Domestic and overseas revenues for 2024 are projected to be 14.14 billion and 30.51 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 30.26% and 14.62% [7] - The company has established stable long-term partnerships with global clients, exporting products to 85 countries across five continents [7] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.60, 1.90, and 2.22 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 30.3, 25.6, and 21.9 [4][8] - The company's revenue for 2025 is estimated at 5.247 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.5% [8]