Yunnan Aluminium (000807) 申万宏源证券·2025-04-24 12:13Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with a revenue of 14.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.9%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 974 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 16.3% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 64.7% [7]. - The decline in net profit is attributed to the absence of asset disposal gains that were present in the previous year, alongside increased sales and raw material prices [7]. - The rapid decline in alumina costs in 2025 is expected to enhance the company's profit elasticity, as the company may still hold some high-cost alumina inventory [7]. - Domestic aluminum production capacity is nearing its limit, with a utilization rate of 97.5%, which, combined with supportive domestic demand policies, is expected to provide price support for aluminum [7]. - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 5.471 billion yuan, 7.321 billion yuan, and 7.909 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision from previous forecasts [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 56.352 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.5% [6]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 5.471 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24.0% [6]. - The earnings per share for 2025 is expected to be 1.58 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 10 [6].