盐湖股份（000792）：钾肥价格提升稳固业绩，继续融入“三步走战略”

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 16.34 CNY [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.12 billion CNY in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.5% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 33.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.14 billion CNY, up 22.5% year-on-year but down 24.7% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The lithium carbonate segment saw a decline in both volume and price, with production and sales of 0.85 and 0.81 million tons respectively, down 2.1% and 17.9% year-on-year. The average market price for lithium carbonate was 75,000 CNY per ton, down 26.0% year-on-year [3]. - In contrast, the potassium chloride segment experienced a significant price increase, with production and sales of 965,000 and 891,000 tons respectively. The average selling price for potassium fertilizer was approximately 2,750 CNY per ton, up 2.4% year-on-year [3]. - The company has successfully reduced its total expenses, with a significant decrease in sales and management costs, leading to a low expense ratio [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 3.12 billion CNY, with a net profit of 1.14 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.5% [2]. - The company’s total expenses were 160 million CNY, a decrease of 60.5% quarter-on-quarter, with sales expenses down 72.4% [3]. Production and Pricing - Lithium carbonate production and sales volumes decreased, while potassium chloride prices increased significantly, contributing positively to the company's performance [3]. - The company is expanding its low-cost lithium carbonate production capacity, aiming to reach a total capacity of 80,000 tons by the end of the year [4]. Strategic Development - The company is actively integrating into China's "Three-Step" development strategy for salt lakes, targeting significant increases in potassium and lithium production by 2030 [4]. - The company holds the leading position in domestic potassium chloride production with a capacity of 5 million tons, benefiting from favorable market conditions [4]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 5.2 billion CNY, 6.4 billion CNY, and 7.1 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 14, and 12 [5][6].