ZHENHUA(000733) 国金证券·2025-04-24 15:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has experienced significant performance pressure, with a revenue decline of 33.0% in 2024, resulting in a revenue of 5.22 billion and a net profit drop of 63.8% to 970 million. The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 910 million, down 10.4% year-on-year and 38.6% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 60 million, down 42.6% year-on-year and 82.0% quarter-on-quarter. However, the company is expected to see a turnaround in performance in 2025 as the military industry recovers [2][3][4] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 52.2 billion (down 33.0%) and a net profit of 9.7 billion (down 63.8%). For Q1 2025, revenue was 9.1 billion (down 10.4% year-on-year, down 38.6% quarter-on-quarter) with a net profit of 0.6 billion (down 42.6% year-on-year, down 82.0% quarter-on-quarter). The expected operating indicators for 2025 are a revenue of 57 billion and a total profit of 11.45 billion [1][2] Operational Analysis - The company's performance has been under pressure due to delayed orders and price declines. The subsidiaries also faced challenges, with significant revenue drops. However, the subsidiary Zhihua Yongguang showed resilience, with a profit decline of 48.8%, which is significantly lower than the overall company decline of 63.8%, indicating a strong market position in semiconductor discrete devices [2][3] Profitability Analysis - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 49.7% (down 9.6 percentage points), and the net margin was 18.6% (down 15.9 percentage points). For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 42.5% (down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, down 7.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter), and the net margin was 6.4% (down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, down 15.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter). The report anticipates an improvement in profit margins as orders recover in 2025 [3][4] Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.28 billion, 1.63 billion, and 1.97 billion from 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 31.62%, 27.93%, and 20.43%, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 23.4, 18.3, and 15.2 times. The company is positioned as a leading platform for military components, with significant performance elasticity and sustainability advantages as the industry recovers [4]