证券研究报告：国防军工 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 -30% -23% -16% -9% -2% 5% 12% 19% 26% 33% 2024-04 2024-07 2024-09 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 振华科技 国防军工 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 52.70 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）5.54 / 5.54 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）292 / 292 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 64.07 / 32.59 | | 资产负债率(%) | 18.3% | | 市盈率 | 30.09 | | 第一大股东 | 中国振华电子集团有限 | | 公司 | | 研究所 1、需求节奏影响以及单价下调，2024 年和 2025Q1 公司业绩承 压。2024 年，随着新型电子集中采购、单价下调、门槛降低等国家与 行业政策的逐步深化落实，以及受装备采购节奏调整等因素影响，公 司 2024 年和 2025Q1 业绩承压。2024 年，公司实现营收 52.19 亿元， 同比减少 ...

证券研究报告：国防军工 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 -30% -23% -16% -9% -2% 5% 12% 19% 26% 33% 2024-04 2024-07 2024-09 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 振华科技 国防军工 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 52.70 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）5.54 / 5.54 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）292 / 292 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 64.07 / 32.59 | | 资产负债率(%) | 18.3% | | 市盈率 | 30.09 | | 第一大股东 | 中国振华电子集团有限 | | 公司 | | 研究所 分析师:鲍学博 SAC 登记编号:S1340523020002 Email:baoxuebo@cnpsec.com 分析师:马强 SAC 登记编号:S1340523080002 Email:maqiang@cnpsec.com 振华科技(000733) 业绩短期承压，前瞻性指标向好 ⚫ 事件 4 月 2 ...

证券代码：000733 证券简称：振华科技 公告编号：2025-028 中国振华（集团）科技股份有限公司 关于参加 2025 年投资者集体接待日暨 2024 年度业绩 说明会并征集问题的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 中国振华（集团）科技股份有限公司（以下简称公司）于 2025 年 4 月 24 日在巨潮资讯网披露了《2024 年年度报告》。为加强公司与投资者 的交流互动，便于投资者进一步了解公司 2024 年度经营情况及其他关切 问题，在贵州证监局指导下，公司将参加贵州证券业协会联合深圳市全景 网络有限公司举办的"2025 年贵州辖区上市公司投资者集体接待日暨 2024 年度业绩说明会"，并征集相关问题，具体安排如下： 一、业绩说明会的安排 特此公告。 中国振华（集团）科技股份有限公司董事会 2.召开方式：网络远程方式。 3.出席本次活动人员有：公司董事长杨立明先生；独立董事陈万军先 生；董事会秘书、总会计师、总法律顾问胡光文先生，具体以当天实际参 会人员为准。 4.参与方式：投资者可登录 http://rs.p5w.net 进入专区页 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 78.12 CNY [4]. Core Views - The company's short-term performance is under pressure, but it is expected to improve as industry demand recovers [9]. - The company reported a revenue of 5.219 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 32.99%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 970 million CNY, down 63.83% [1][9]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 908 million CNY, down 10.45%, and a net profit of 59 million CNY, down 42.60% [1]. Financial Forecast and Investment Suggestions - Revenue growth rates have been adjusted downward due to industry demand and price control, with EPS for 2025 and 2026 revised to 2.52 CNY and 3.30 CNY respectively, and a new EPS for 2027 set at 4.08 CNY [2]. - The target price is based on a PE ratio of 31 times for comparable companies in 2025 [2]. Financial Information - The company’s revenue is projected to recover to 6.775 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 29.8% [3]. - The gross margin is expected to decline to 49.7% in 2024, down 9.65 percentage points, and further to 42.49% in Q1 2025, down 5.07 percentage points [9]. - The net profit margin is projected to improve gradually, reaching 22.3% by 2027 [3]. Company Overview - The company is positioned as a leading platform in military components, with significant growth potential through product diversification and industry chain extension [9]. - The company has been increasing inventory to meet order delivery requirements, indicating a recovery in industry demand [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 78.12 CNY [4]. Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but it is expected to improve as industry demand recovers. In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.219 billion CNY, a decrease of 32.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 970 million CNY, down 63.83% [1][9]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 908 million CNY, a decline of 10.45%, and a net profit of 59 million CNY, down 42.60% [1][9]. - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to a slowdown in new orders and industry demand, but a recovery is anticipated starting from Q2 2025 [9]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023A: Revenue 7.789 billion CNY, Net Profit 2.683 billion CNY - 2024A: Revenue 5.219 billion CNY, Net Profit 970 million CNY - 2025E: Revenue 6.775 billion CNY, Net Profit 1.399 billion CNY - 2026E: Revenue 8.472 billion CNY, Net Profit 1.829 billion CNY - 2027E: Revenue 10.148 billion CNY, Net Profit 2.260 billion CNY [3][13]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS) Forecasts: - 2024A: 1.75 CNY - 2025E: 2.52 CNY - 2026E: 3.30 CNY - 2027E: 4.08 CNY [2][3]. - Gross Margin and Profitability: - 2024 gross margin is expected to decline to 49.7%, down from 59.3% in 2023 [3][9]. - Net profit margin for 2024 is projected at 18.6% [3]. Industry Position - The company is positioned as a leading platform in military components, with significant growth potential through product diversification and industry chain extension. The company has been expanding its product categories and enhancing its technological barriers [9]. - The increase in inventory levels indicates a positive outlook for industry recovery, with inventory at the end of Q1 2025 reaching 2.389 billion CNY, up 6.51% from the end of 2024 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to weak downstream demand and price reductions in the specialty electronic components sector, but anticipates a recovery in demand post-Spring Festival and improved performance in the future [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.219 billion yuan (down 32.99% year-on-year) and a net profit of 970 million yuan (down 63.83% year-on-year), which was below previous profit forecasts [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 908 million yuan (down 10.45% year-on-year) and a net profit of 58.51 million yuan (down 42.60% year-on-year) [1]. - The new electronic components business generated revenue of 5.177 billion yuan in 2024 (down 33.20% year-on-year) with a gross margin of 49.80% (down 9.66 percentage points year-on-year) [2]. Business Segments - Subsidiary performance in 2024 included: - Zhihua Yunkai: Revenue of 663 million yuan (down 39.22% year-on-year), net profit of 159 million yuan (down 68.08% year-on-year) [2]. - Zhihua Yongguang: Revenue of 1.242 billion yuan (down 37.98% year-on-year), net profit of 502 million yuan (down 48.75% year-on-year) [2]. - Zhihua Fushi: Revenue of 547 million yuan (down 32.49% year-on-year), net profit of 125 million yuan (down 66.05% year-on-year) [2]. Industry Position and Outlook - The company maintains a core position in the specialty electronic components industry, with a comprehensive product range and ongoing innovation, including the development of new products and patents [3]. - The global political climate and increased defense spending are expected to provide sustained growth momentum for the specialty electronic components sector, indicating a positive long-term development trend for the company [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.350 billion yuan, 1.701 billion yuan, and 1.995 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment due to declining product prices and gross margins [4]. - The target price for the company is set at 75.53 yuan, based on a 31 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to geopolitical factors and industry price controls, leading to increased market competition and challenges in operational development [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.219 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.99% [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 970 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 63.83% [1][2]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The new electronic components market is highly competitive, with both revenue and net profit experiencing a downturn due to geopolitical influences and price control measures [2]. - Structural shifts in defense budgets and increased demand for equipment informatization have provided some growth momentum, but policies like centralized procurement and price reductions have intensified market competition, compressing profit margins [2]. Group 3: R&D and Innovation - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment in 2024, achieving notable advancements in product innovation and technology [2]. - Improvements were made in basic components such as diodes and transistors, enhancing product reliability and stability [2]. - Progress was also made in electronic functional materials, including MLCC dielectric materials and microwave ferrites, to meet market demands for high-performance materials [2]. Group 4: Future Development Plans - The company aims to focus on technological innovation and market demand to drive industrial upgrades, with plans to deepen its involvement in new electronic components [3]. - There will be increased R&D investment in basic components, electronic functional materials, and mixed integrated circuits to enhance product value [3]. - Future growth drivers include ongoing technological innovation, increasing market demand due to technological advancements, and promoting industrial synergy through collaboration with upstream and downstream enterprises [3]. Group 5: Profit Forecast - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 1.083 billion yuan and 1.252 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, down from previous estimates of 2.367 billion yuan and 2.919 billion yuan [3]. - A new forecast for 2027 anticipates a net profit of 1.447 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 28, 24, and 21 times for the respective years [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent financial report of Zhenhua Technology (000733) indicates a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for Q1 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, raising concerns about the company's financial health and operational efficiency [1]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was 908 million yuan, a decrease of 10.45% year-on-year from 1.014 billion yuan in Q1 2024 [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 58.51 million yuan, down 42.6% from 102 million yuan in Q1 2024 [1]. - The gross profit margin decreased to 42.49%, down 10.66% year-on-year, while the net profit margin fell to 6.45%, a decline of 35.84% [1]. - The company's operating cash flow per share was -0.05 yuan, a significant drop of 121.51% compared to 0.25 yuan in the previous year [1]. Accounts Receivable and Debt - The accounts receivable amount was substantial, with accounts receivable to net profit ratio reaching 501.59%, indicating potential liquidity issues [1][3]. - Interest-bearing liabilities decreased to 1.124 billion yuan, down 16.69% from 1.349 billion yuan in the previous year [1]. Market Position and Analyst Expectations - Analysts expect Zhenhua Technology's performance for 2025 to reach 1.134 billion yuan in revenue, with an average earnings per share of 2.05 yuan [3]. - The company has a healthy cash asset position, with total cash assets reported at 3.132 billion yuan, an increase of 20.23% year-on-year [1][3]. Fund Holdings - The largest fund holding Zhenhua Technology is the E Fund National Defense and Military Industry Mixed A, which has increased its position [4]. - Other funds have shown varied interest, with some increasing their holdings while others have reduced their positions [4]. Order Situation - The company reported a growth trend in new orders, indicating a positive outlook for future production and delivery [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has experienced significant performance pressure, with a revenue decline of 33.0% in 2024, resulting in a revenue of 5.22 billion and a net profit drop of 63.8% to 970 million. The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 910 million, down 10.4% year-on-year and 38.6% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 60 million, down 42.6% year-on-year and 82.0% quarter-on-quarter. However, the company is expected to see a turnaround in performance in 2025 as the military industry recovers [2][3][4] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 52.2 billion (down 33.0%) and a net profit of 9.7 billion (down 63.8%). For Q1 2025, revenue was 9.1 billion (down 10.4% year-on-year, down 38.6% quarter-on-quarter) with a net profit of 0.6 billion (down 42.6% year-on-year, down 82.0% quarter-on-quarter). The expected operating indicators for 2025 are a revenue of 57 billion and a total profit of 11.45 billion [1][2] Operational Analysis - The company's performance has been under pressure due to delayed orders and price declines. The subsidiaries also faced challenges, with significant revenue drops. However, the subsidiary Zhihua Yongguang showed resilience, with a profit decline of 48.8%, which is significantly lower than the overall company decline of 63.8%, indicating a strong market position in semiconductor discrete devices [2][3] Profitability Analysis - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 49.7% (down 9.6 percentage points), and the net margin was 18.6% (down 15.9 percentage points). For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 42.5% (down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, down 7.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter), and the net margin was 6.4% (down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, down 15.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter). The report anticipates an improvement in profit margins as orders recover in 2025 [3][4] Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.28 billion, 1.63 billion, and 1.97 billion from 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 31.62%, 27.93%, and 20.43%, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 23.4, 18.3, and 15.2 times. The company is positioned as a leading platform for military components, with significant performance elasticity and sustainability advantages as the industry recovers [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, considering its leading position in the domestic high-tech electronic components sector [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.22 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 33.0%, and a net profit of 970 million yuan, down 63.8% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 910 million yuan, down 10.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 59 million yuan, down 42.6% year-on-year. The performance aligns with expectations despite significant challenges in the market [3]. - The company faces pressure from cyclical market fluctuations and price reductions affecting profitability. The gross margin for 2024 decreased by 9.6 percentage points to 49.7%, and the net margin fell by 15.8 percentage points to 18.6% due to intensified competition and changes in procurement and technology [3][4]. - The company expects a revenue of 5.7 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, and a total profit of 1.145 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit across its subsidiaries, with notable decreases in revenue and net profit for its main business units [4]. - The company’s operating cash flow improved, with net cash flow from operating activities reaching 1.6 billion yuan in 2024, compared to 1.23 billion yuan in 2023 [5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for 2025 to 2027 indicates a gradual recovery, with expected net profits of 1.134 billion yuan, 1.371 billion yuan, and 1.6 billion yuan respectively, alongside corresponding PE ratios of 27x, 22x, and 19x [6][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a core supplier in the high-tech electronic components field, leveraging its brand value matrix and capabilities in various emerging sectors such as commercial aerospace and new energy vehicles [6].