缺乏明显利好驱动，板块整体延续震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural product sector lacks obvious positive drivers and continues to fluctuate [1] - Cotton prices are affected by factors such as Sino - US tariffs, new - season supply expectations, and domestic inventory levels, with short - term prices expected to fluctuate [3] - Sugar prices are influenced by international supply and demand, Brazilian production, and domestic policies, and will follow the trend of raw sugar in the long - term [5] - Pulp prices are under pressure due to factors like trade frictions, high inventory, and weak demand, and are expected to remain under pressure in the short - term [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 12,990 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [2] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 13,988 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national average price was 14,188 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton [2] - In March 2025, Vietnam's textile and clothing exports reached 3.06 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 14.9% [2] Market Analysis - Macro: Sino - US tariffs have a long - term negative impact on domestic textile exports; the result of US bilateral negotiations needs attention [3] - International: The focus has shifted to new - season supply, with a strong expectation of reduced planting in the US and support for the December contract [3] - Domestic: The expected cotton planting area is stable with a slight increase; the de - stocking speed in March was fast, but the demand outlook is not optimistic [3] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term cotton prices are expected to fluctuate [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,945 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,980 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3] - As of April 23, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports increased to 44, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 1.8711 million tons, a 10.49% increase from the previous week [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Affected by macro - sentiment, it fell below 18 cents. The short - term supply and demand are tight, but Brazilian production suppresses the upside [5] - Zheng sugar: It followed the decline of raw sugar but was relatively resistant. The March production and sales data were positive, and the next - season production is uncertain [5] Strategy - Neutral. Follow the trend of raw sugar, and focus on Brazilian production and domestic imports [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5,388 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,320 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - The spot price of imported wood pulp in the market showed mixed trends, with some prices rising and some falling [6] Market Analysis - Macro: The "reciprocal tariff" policy has an impact on pulp prices, but the short - term trade friction has eased [7] - Supply: The foreign quotation is relatively firm, but the high inventory in China suppresses prices [7] - Demand: European demand is weak, and domestic downstream demand is not strong, with the possibility of further weakening in the off - season [7] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term pulp prices are expected to remain under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro - trends [8]