Yanjing Brewery(000729) 华创证券·2025-04-25 05:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 15.5 yuan [5][9]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 3.827 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.69%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 165 million yuan, up 61.10% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 153 million yuan, an increase of 49.11% [2][5]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a projected net profit of 14.5 billion yuan, 17.5 billion yuan, and 20.2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 25, 20, and 18 [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - 2025 Q1 Performance: - Total revenue: 3.827 billion yuan, up 6.69% year-on-year - Net profit: 165 million yuan, up 61.10% year-on-year - Gross margin: 42.8%, up 5.6 percentage points year-on-year [2][9]. - Future Financial Projections: - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 14.667 billion yuan, 15.439 billion yuan, 16.076 billion yuan, and 16.566 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.2%, 5.3%, 4.1%, and 3.1% [5][10]. - Net profit projections for the same years are 1.056 billion yuan, 1.451 billion yuan, 1.753 billion yuan, and 2.022 billion yuan, with growth rates of 63.7%, 37.4%, 20.9%, and 15.3% respectively [5][10]. - Key Financial Ratios: - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is projected at 0.51 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 25 [5][10]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 32.07% [6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has shown strong performance in its flagship product U8, which has maintained a growth rate of over 30%, indicating a robust market position and potential for further expansion [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the company's reform strategy and its potential to double profits in the next 3-4 years, with a target net profit exceeding 20 billion yuan [9][10].