Panda Dairy (300898) 华鑫证券·2025-04-25 05:21Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [2][8] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to rising costs, with revenue and profit impacted significantly. Q1 2025 total revenue and net profit were CNY 1.70 billion and CNY 0.14 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 8.3% and 48.8% [6] - The company is focusing on new product development, particularly in the coconut product segment, which has shown strong growth. Q1 2025 coconut product revenue nearly doubled year-on-year, driven by the recovery of major clients and the acquisition of new customers [7] - The company is expected to consolidate its core business while developing a second growth curve through improved retail channel construction. EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are CNY 0.89, CNY 0.99, and CNY 1.13, with corresponding PE ratios of 35, 32, and 28 times [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's gross margin and net margin were 25% and 8%, respectively, down by 3.8 and 6.9 percentage points year-on-year. Operating cash flow remained stable, but sales collections decreased by 16.8% year-on-year [6] - The company reported a total of CNY 0.10 billion in contract liabilities as of the end of Q1 2025, a decrease of CNY 0.04 billion from the previous quarter [6] Product Development - The company is actively developing new products such as coconut cream and premium cheese, targeting the high-end market. The baking industry is also seen as a potential area for future growth [7] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve main revenue of CNY 783 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 2.4%. Net profit is expected to reach CNY 110 million, reflecting a growth rate of 7.1% [11]