Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of HKD 5.68 and an industry rating of "Outperform" [1]. Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with a global package volume of 6.6 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.2%. The Southeast Asian market led this growth with a 50.0% increase, while the Chinese market saw a 26.5% increase [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued growth driven by Southeast Asia's consumer market and efficiency improvements in China, supporting the "Buy" rating [5][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a net profit of RMB 2.728 billion in 2025, with a significant year-on-year growth of 240.1%. The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 0.30, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 18.7 for 2025, 11.4 for 2026, and 8.0 for 2027 [5][7]. Revenue and Growth Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 63.056 billion in 2023 to RMB 109.376 billion by 2027, with growth rates of 22% in 2023, 16% in 2024, and 13% in subsequent years [7][9]. - The EBITDA is expected to improve significantly, moving from a loss of RMB 4.107 billion in 2023 to a profit of RMB 10.434 billion by 2027 [7][9]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the operational adjustments made in response to seasonal demand, including the addition of 400 new outlets and 1,000 new vehicles in Southeast Asia, while optimizing the network in China [8]. - The Southeast Asian market's consumer activity and e-commerce penetration are expected to continue driving package volume growth, while efficiency improvements in China are anticipated to enhance profitability [8].
极兔速递-W（01519）：极兔速递-w（01519）：一季度全球包裹总量同比增长逾三成，东南亚同比增速领跑