美债札记五：“U”型美债收益率曲线的未来怎么看？

Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The current U.S. Treasury yield curve exhibits a "U" shape, indicating market expectations of a softening U.S. economy and potential policy rate cuts[4] - As of April 24, the "3M-2Y-10Y" curve levels are approximately 4.30%-3.80%-4.31%, reflecting differing market expectations across short, medium, and long-term rates[4] - The recent volatility in UST10Y rates, which surged from 3.99% to 4.49% (an increase of 50 basis points) within six trading days, highlights the sensitivity of the market to policy uncertainties[4] Group 2: Risks and Concerns - Long-term risks to U.S. Treasury sustainability stem from a lack of fiscal discipline, with concerns that the biggest risk is not excessive borrowing but rather a lack of management[5] - The anticipated "massive" debt maturities and refinancing pressures are overstated, as recent data shows no significant increase in maturing debt compared to previous years[5] - The U.S. fiscal outlook remains precarious, with a Senate budget framework proposing only $4 billion in spending cuts, contrasting sharply with the House's proposed$1.5 trillion cuts, indicating a lack of fiscal restraint[5] Group 3: Future Projections - If tariff negotiations ease, the yield curve may flatten, reducing inflation concerns and shifting UST2Y rates upward while lowering UST10Y rates[5] - Conversely, if tariff negotiations worsen, the yield curve may steepen, increasing recession fears and pushing down mid-curve rates while maintaining upward pressure on long-term rates due to inflation concerns[5] - The long-term systemic rise in Treasury yield premiums (TP) is a significant concern, potentially leading to higher long-term yields[5]