北新建材（000786）：经营韧性较强，盈利能力稳定

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company demonstrates strong operational resilience and stable profitability, with Q1 2025 revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 6.25 billion, 840 million, and 820 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.1%, 2.5%, and 3.5% [1] - The gypsum board business faces pressure with a revenue decline of 7.0% year-on-year, while the waterproof business shows growth with a revenue increase of 10.5% year-on-year [2] - The company is expanding its industrial coatings segment with a new production base in Anqing, focusing on industrial corrosion protection coatings [2] - The overall profitability remains stable due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with a gross margin of 28.9%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.25 billion yuan, with a net profit of 840 million yuan, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 820 million yuan, showing year-on-year increases of 5.1%, 2.5%, and 3.5% respectively [1] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 28.9%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to cost reduction and product mix optimization [3] Business Segments - The gypsum board and related businesses generated 4.20 billion yuan in revenue, down 7.0% year-on-year, indicating increased competition and price pressure [2] - The waterproof business achieved a revenue of 1.05 billion yuan, up 10.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 40 million yuan, reflecting a 19.9% increase [2] - The coatings segment saw a significant revenue increase of 111.4% year-on-year, primarily due to the consolidation of Carpoly, with a net profit of 40 million yuan, up 48.2% [2] Growth and Profitability Forecast - The report forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 4.566 billion, 5.367 billion, and 6.219 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 25.20%, 17.53%, and 15.88% [4] - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory, supported by its resilient gypsum board business, growth in waterproof products, and expansion in the coatings sector [3][4]