电投能源（002128）：电解铝贡献弹性，煤电托底，未来可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 29.859 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.23%, and a net profit of 5.342 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.15% [1] - The growth in performance is primarily driven by the increase in both volume and price of coal and electrolytic aluminum [1] - The company has established itself as a leading brown coal seller in Northeast China, with a planned coal production and sales target of 48 million tons for 2025 [3] - The electrolytic aluminum business is anticipated to provide significant growth potential, with a production target of 90,000 tons for 2025 [8] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.13%, but a net profit of 942 million yuan, which is a decrease of 3.37% year-on-year [1] - The company produced 48 million tons of raw coal in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and sold 47.76 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [8] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 222 yuan per ton, up 8.6% year-on-year, while the cost was 90 yuan per ton, down 8% year-on-year [8] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.8 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.79 billion yuan, which represents 35.67% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [10] Business Segments - The company's power generation volume in 2024 is expected to reach 1,155,445 million kWh, a year-on-year increase of 32.8%, with significant contributions from renewable energy sources [4] - The company has a strong focus on green electricity, with plans to increase the proportion of green electricity in its aluminum production to 79% after the completion of a new project [8] - The coal business is expected to maintain stable profits, while the aluminum segment is projected to benefit from a significant drop in alumina prices, enhancing cost efficiency [8]