SRCB(601825) 华创证券·2025-04-25 11:58Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 9.72 CNY, compared to the current price of 8.44 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company's performance remains stable with a positive growth trajectory, and the dividend payout ratio has increased to 34% [1]. - The company reported operating revenues of 26.64 billion CNY for 2024 and 6.56 billion CNY for Q1 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.86% and -7.4% respectively [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 12.29 billion CNY and 3.56 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 1.2% and 0.34% respectively [1]. - The non-performing loan ratio has remained stable at 0.97% for four consecutive quarters, while the provision coverage ratio has shown a downward trend, decreasing by 13.1 percentage points to 339% in Q1 2025 [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a total operating income of 26.64 billion CNY in 2024, with a projected decline of 3.1% in 2025, followed by growth rates of 4.9% and 5.8% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow at rates of 1.0%, 1.1%, and 4.0% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6]. - The company’s total assets are projected to increase from 1,487.81 billion CNY in 2024 to 1,888.13 billion CNY by 2027 [8]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The non-performing loan ratio is expected to remain stable at 0.97% for 2025, with a slight decrease to 0.96% in 2026 and 0.95% in 2027 [10]. - The provision coverage ratio is projected to decline from 352.34% in 2024 to 298.51% by 2027, indicating a solid risk management framework despite the downward trend [10]. Dividend Policy - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio, with a mid-year dividend rate of 33.07% for 2024, up by 3 percentage points from 2023, and an expected full-year dividend rate of 33.91% [1]. - The dividend policy is becoming more quantifiable and stable, with a focus on maintaining a steady increase in dividend payouts [1].