Huaneng Hydropower(600025) 华泰证券·2025-04-25 12:21Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 11.48 RMB [7][10]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.882 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.297 billion RMB, up 8.63% year-on-year [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.385 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21.84%, and a net profit of 1.508 billion RMB, up 41.56% year-on-year, primarily due to increased energy storage release and the full capacity operation of TB hydropower station [1][2]. - The company’s dividend per share (DPS) for 2024 is 0.2 RMB, with a payout ratio of 43.39%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.97 percentage points [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's on-grid electricity volume increased by 4.51% year-on-year to 1,110.24 billion kWh in 2024, driven by favorable water conditions and increased photovoltaic capacity [2]. - The average on-grid electricity price (excluding tax) for 2024 is estimated at 0.222 RMB/kWh, a rise of 0.02 RMB/kWh year-on-year, attributed to the growth in market prices for clean energy in Yunnan province [2]. Q1 2025 Insights - The comprehensive on-grid electricity price (excluding tax) for Q1 2025 is estimated to have decreased by 0.02 RMB/kWh to 0.255 RMB/kWh, influenced by market price changes and the structure of electricity volume [3]. - The company’s electricity volume from lower-priced hydropower stations increased significantly, which affected the overall pricing structure [3]. Valuation and Forecast - The target price of 11.48 RMB is based on a revised PE ratio of 24.0x for 2025, reflecting a decrease from the previous target price of 11.82 RMB [4]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is adjusted down by 2.9% to 8.608 billion RMB, with further projections for 2026 and 2027 showing net profits of 9.342 billion RMB and 9.673 billion RMB, respectively [4][6].