NHD(002946) 申万宏源证券·2025-04-25 12:19Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2]. Core Views - The company has shown a steady improvement in profitability, with a focus on its low-temperature business continuing to grow positively. The report highlights the successful implementation of its "fresh strategy" to enhance its fresh milk business and optimize its product structure, which is expected to drive future growth [7][6]. - The financial performance for 2024 met expectations, with a total revenue of 10.665 billion and a net profit of 538 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.8% [7][6]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 687 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 28%, and further growth in subsequent years [7][6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is reported at 10,665 million, with a slight decline of 2.9% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 2,625 million, with a growth of 0.4% [6][7]. - The net profit for 2024 is 538 million, with a significant increase of 24.8% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 shows a net profit of 133 million, reflecting a growth of 48.5% [6][7]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 28.36% in 2024, up by 1.49 percentage points, attributed to lower raw milk prices and an increased share of low-temperature products [7][6]. - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 687 million, 839 million, and 974 million respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 28%, 22%, and 16% [6][7].