事件：公司发布 2024 年年度报告、2025 年第一季度报告，24Q4 实现营收 25.2 亿元，同比-9.9%；归母净利润 0.64 亿元，同比+28.1%；扣非归母净 利润 0.72 亿元，同比-2.3%。25Q1 实现营收 26.2 亿元，同比+0.4%；实现 归母净利润 1.3 亿元，同比 48.5%；扣非归母净利润 1.4 亿元，同比+40.4%。 证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 04 月 30 日 新乳业（002946.SZ） 25Q1 利润超预期，低温品类延续增长助力盈利提升 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 10,987 | 10,665 | 10,889 | 11,379 | 12,005 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 9.8 | -2.9 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 5.5 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 431 | 538 | 655 | 801 | 913 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 19.3 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年04月29日 公 司 简 评 [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 风险提示：原奶价格波动风险、国内市场需求不及预期、食品安全风险。 [盈利预测与估值简表 Table_profits] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入(百万元) | 10,665.42 | 11,182.17 | 11,880.75 | 12,638.91 | | 同比增速(%) | -2.93% | 4.85% | 6.25% | 6.38% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 537.69 | 678.41 | 818.93 | 966.23 | | 同比增速(%) | 24.80% | 26.17% | 20.71% | 17.99% | | EPS（元/股） | 0.62 | 0.79 | 0.95 | 1.12 | | 市盈率（P/E） | 26.20 | 20.77 | 17.20 | 14.58 | | 市净率（P/B） | 4.61 | 3.99 | 3.54 | ...

投资评级：增持（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/28 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 15.99 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 18.26/7.88 | | 总市值(亿元) | 137.62 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 136.03 | | 总股本(亿股) | 8.61 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 8.51 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 73.39 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 新乳业 沪深300 相关研究报告 《主营业务稳健增长，产品结构优化 拉升毛利率—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.11.4 食品饮料/饮料乳品 新乳业（002946.SZ） 2025 年 04 月 29 日 《2024Q2 收入承压，利润表现良好— 公司信息更新报告》-2024.9.1 2025Q1 利润超预期，结构优化持续提升盈利能力 ——公司信息更新报告 | 张宇光（分析师） | 张思敏（联系人） | | --- | --- | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | zhangs ...

2025 年 04 月 28 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 刘洁铭 S0350521110006 | | | | liujm@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 秦一方 S0350523120001 | | | | qinyf@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 黄诗汶 S0350124040004 | | | | huangsw01@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 强化核心业务优势，利润率改善持续兑现 ——新乳业（002946）2024 年报和 2025 年一季 报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/04/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 新乳业 | 9.0% | 10.8% | 65.2% | | 沪深 300 | -3.4% | -0.9% | 5.5% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/04/28 | | 当前价格（元） | | | ...

深圳商报·读创客户端 夏显平 新乳业发布2024年年度报告以及2025年一季报。去年，新乳业实现营业收入106.65亿元；归母净利润 5.38亿元，增24.8%。该公司2025年一季度营业收入26.25亿；归母净利润1.33亿，同比提升48.46%。 2024年是新乳业推进新的五年战略规划的第二年。在乳品行业增速放缓、市场竞争更加激烈的大环境 下，新乳业以提振乳品消费为突破口，持续深化"鲜立方战略"，强化核心业务，围绕"以鲜为美"打出拉 动消费的组合拳，收入规模总体稳定，净利润显著提升，资产负债率显著下降，经营质量得到进一步提 升，经营水平和投资回报不断提高。2024年实施的2023年度分红较上年增加76%，并推动了上市以来的 首次中期分红。 同时，其今年一季度净利润率5.25%，同比增加1.69个百分点，经营性净现金流实现1.6亿，较同期大幅 改善，资产负债率较2025年期初下降2.38个百分点，业绩表现持续跑赢行业大盘。 报告显示，新乳业坚持"鲜立方战略"不动摇，聚焦核心品类发展，报告期内，低温鲜奶和低温酸奶均取 得中高个位数增长，低温品类占比持续提高；高端鲜奶和低温调制乳同比实现双位数增长，旗下"24小 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, New Dairy Industry (002946.SZ), has demonstrated a better market performance than the industry average despite the overall downturn in the dairy sector, particularly through its focus on low-temperature milk products. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue is projected to be 10.665 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline of 2.93%, while the dairy product segment still achieved a growth of 0.83% [2] - The overall sales of dairy products across all channels fell by 2.7% in the past year, with major competitors like Mengniu (2319.HK) and Yili (600887.SH) experiencing revenue declines exceeding 10% and 12% respectively in their liquid milk segments [4] - New Dairy Industry achieved a net profit of 538 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 24.8%, attributed to a higher proportion of low-temperature milk and declining raw milk costs [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The low-temperature milk segment has seen its penetration rate increase from 23% in 2020 to 41% in 2024, with nearly 60% of households in first-tier cities purchasing fresh milk more than twice a week [8] - Over half of New Dairy Industry's revenue comes from low-temperature products, capitalizing on the growth opportunities in this niche market [9] - The company has experienced a rise in gross margin to 28.36%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points over the past four years, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin products [12] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The low-temperature milk market remains competitive, with no clear leader, as major brands are rapidly expanding their market shares [13] - In the second half of 2024, Guangming (600594.SH) is expected to catch up to Yili in market share, while Mengniu's high-end low-temperature brand "Daily Fresh" is gaining traction through aggressive marketing [14] - Price wars are looming, putting pressure on New Dairy Industry's mid-to-high-end products, as promotional expenses increased by 100 million yuan, while revenue growth for the "24-hour" series slowed from 40% to 15% year-on-year [15] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - New Dairy Industry has pursued a national expansion strategy through acquisitions, having spent over 3.3 billion yuan on acquisitions since its listing, which has allowed it to operate 15 sub-brands [24][25] - The company is now focusing on "internal growth" and aims for a compound annual growth rate of double digits and a 10% reduction in debt ratio over the next five years [30] - The company plans to enhance operational quality in existing businesses while remaining open to acquisition opportunities, particularly in the growing low-temperature milk markets in second and third-tier cities [31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's main revenue remains stable, with a significant improvement in profitability. Total revenue and net profit for 2024 were 10.665 billion and 538 million yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 3% and an increase of 25% [5] - The low-temperature product category continues to perform well, with expectations for new products to drive further growth. Revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other categories for 2024 were 9.836 billion, 71 million, and 758 million yuan, respectively, with liquid milk showing a stable performance [6] - Direct sales channels are growing rapidly, particularly in the East China region, with direct sales revenue reaching 6.225 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11% [8] - The company aims to double its net profit margin over the next five years, focusing on expanding its core business and enhancing corporate value [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue was 10.665 billion yuan, with a net profit of 538 million yuan, reflecting a 25% increase year-on-year. The Q1 2025 figures showed a revenue of 2.625 billion yuan and a net profit of 133 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 0.4% and 48% respectively [5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 28.36%, increasing by 1.5 percentage points, while the net margin was 5.15%, up by 1.2 percentage points [5] Product Performance - The low-temperature milk segment, including fresh milk and yogurt, achieved mid-to-high single-digit growth, with the "24-hour" series seeing over 15% revenue growth [6] - New product launches contributed to maintaining a double-digit revenue share, with the "初心" series and "活润" brand both achieving significant growth [6][7] Sales Channels - Direct sales revenue reached 6.225 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11%, while online sales through platforms like Douyin and JD.com grew by 32% [8] - The company's self-developed "鲜活 go" platform has shown significant growth in user retention and repurchase rates [8] Profit Forecast - The company projects EPS of 0.78, 0.92, and 1.03 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 19, and 17 times [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated a significant profit release exceeding expectations, with a continuous breakthrough in the low-temperature product category [1] - The main business revenue remains stable, and profitability has improved significantly, with a notable increase in net profit margin [5] - The company aims to enhance its core business and achieve a doubling of net profit margin over the next five years [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 10.665 billion and 538 million yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 3% and an increase of 25% [5] - For Q1 2025, total revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 2.625 billion and 133 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.4% and 48% [5] - The gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 28.36% and 5.15%, respectively, with improvements noted in Q1 2025 [5] Product Performance - The liquid milk segment generated revenue of 9.836 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 1% [6] - Low-temperature products, including fresh milk and yogurt, achieved mid to high single-digit growth, with the "24-hour" series seeing over 15% revenue growth [6][7] Sales Channels - Direct sales revenue reached 6.225 billion yuan in 2024, up 11% year-on-year, while distribution revenue declined by 13% [8] - Online sales through platforms like Douyin and JD.com generated 1.161 billion yuan, marking a 32% increase [8] Earnings Forecast - The company projects EPS of 0.78, 0.92, and 1.03 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 19, and 17 times [9][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [15] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 10.665 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.93%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 538 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 24.8% [3][10] - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 are forecasted to be 28.36% and 5.04%, respectively, showing improvements compared to the previous year [3] - The company has optimized its management expenses and reduced financial costs, contributing to a decrease in the financial expense ratio [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported total revenue of 251.6 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.94%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 28.08% [4] - The company's revenue from liquid milk is expected to grow against the trend, while the overall revenue decline is attributed to the divestment of the yogurt business and contraction in trade operations [4][5] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 262.5 million yuan, with a net profit increase of 48.46% year-on-year [7] Product and Market Insights - The high-end "24-hour" series is expected to continue to grow, with revenue increasing by over 15% year-on-year [5] - The company has expanded its delivery coverage to 141 cities and regions, and the number of image stores has surpassed 500 [5] - The direct sales model has seen an increase in revenue, with direct sales accounting for 62.83% of total sales, up by 6.02 percentage points [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.197 billion yuan, 11.963 billion yuan, and 13.005 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 685 million yuan, 838 million yuan, and 1.001 billion yuan [10][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.80 yuan in 2025 to 1.16 yuan in 2027, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 22 to 15 [10][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2]. Core Views - The company has shown a steady improvement in profitability, with a focus on its low-temperature business continuing to grow positively. The report highlights the successful implementation of its "fresh strategy" to enhance its fresh milk business and optimize its product structure, which is expected to drive future growth [7][6]. - The financial performance for 2024 met expectations, with a total revenue of 10.665 billion and a net profit of 538 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.8% [7][6]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 687 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 28%, and further growth in subsequent years [7][6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is reported at 10,665 million, with a slight decline of 2.9% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 2,625 million, with a growth of 0.4% [6][7]. - The net profit for 2024 is 538 million, with a significant increase of 24.8% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 shows a net profit of 133 million, reflecting a growth of 48.5% [6][7]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 28.36% in 2024, up by 1.49 percentage points, attributed to lower raw milk prices and an increased share of low-temperature products [7][6]. - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 687 million, 839 million, and 974 million respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 28%, 22%, and 16% [6][7].