时代踩下油门和刹车，远比想象中来得更快。 2019年，阿浪在湖北省一个县级市加盟了第一家蜜雪冰城，全年营业额干到150多万，"抛去成本也有的 赚"。彼时，新茶饮市场正以每年超30%的增速狂飙，蜜雪冰城的门店刚突破7000家，尚处于拓荒年 代。特别是在下沉市场，仍有大片空白。 2020年，武汉疫情解封，阿浪看准空置门店和低租金的窗口期，逆势连开几家蜜雪冰城，完成原始积 累。他前后加盟20多家茶饮门店，成了茶饮"圈地运动"的受益者。 2024年初，他又陆续加盟了茶百道、古茗和塔斯汀等，但发现游戏规则已变。此时，全国茶饮门店突破 50万家，市场从"增量竞争"彻底转为"存量厮杀"；蜜雪冰城门店数已达3.3万家，古茗突破9000家，茶 百道也冲刺到近8000家。 "2025年下半年，依然没有一家回本，开始亏钱。"阿浪告诉亿邦动力，"古茗投了60万，好的时候月净 利润4万多。但是受季节影响大，冬天基本不赚钱。熬不住，回本周期太长，最后30多万兑出去了。" "投资回报比不值得，不想干了。"2026年，他倾向于把店面全部兑出去。硬币的另一面，现在仍有许多 人排队加盟蜜雪冰城，或者在找店。但在阿浪眼里，那已是别人想象中的红利。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses how New Hope Dairy is focusing on high-value users, referred to as "super fans," during the Spring Festival marketing campaign, particularly through the 12th Milk Fan Festival [1] - The company aims to transform the Milk Fan Festival from a "traffic field" to an "emotional field" by creating meaningful experiences that resonate with users [1][12] Group 1: Event and Engagement - New Hope Dairy hosted a "Super Fan Gala" in Suzhou, inviting over 300 family users to experience a festive atmosphere, aiming to deepen the emotional connection with the brand [8][10] - The event featured interactive activities, cultural experiences, and exclusive gifts, enhancing the sense of belonging and appreciation among attendees [10][12] Group 2: Cultural Integration - The company collaborated with a national intangible cultural heritage inheritor to create a series of paper-cut artworks themed around the "Year of the Horse," which served as a unique New Year blessing language [3][5] - New Hope Dairy transformed traditional cultural elements into digital formats, such as electronic red envelopes and mobile wallpapers, to enhance social interactions during the festival [5] Group 3: Long-term Relationship Building - The marketing strategy emphasizes the importance of converting short-term engagement into long-term emotional assets, focusing on building sustainable user relationships [13][15] - By integrating online and offline experiences, the company aims to create lasting emotional connections and brand loyalty, moving beyond mere transactional relationships [12][15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The dairy industry is expected to see investment opportunities in 2026, driven by industrial upgrades that may boost raw milk demand and a potential upward turning point in milk prices, which could help leading dairy companies recover market share [4][8] - Supply-side dynamics indicate that raw milk prices are likely to rise, benefiting upstream farming companies. The price of fresh milk has declined for over four years, reaching 3.04 RMB/kg, a 30.6% drop from the 2021 peak of 4.38 RMB/kg. It is anticipated that the price stabilization will occur in the second half of 2025, with a turning point expected in 2026, significantly improving the performance of upstream farming companies [5] - On the demand side, there are structural opportunities in dairy product consumption, with potential for deep processing and domestic substitution to create new growth curves for dairy companies. The per capita consumption of dairy products in China is projected to be 40.6 kg in 2024, still below the 47 kg target set for 2030. The consumption structure is primarily focused on liquid milk, with low proportions of dairy solids [6] Summary by Sections - **Supply-Side Analysis**: The prolonged downturn in milk prices has been influenced by macroeconomic disturbances and the expansion led by large-scale enterprises during the previous price upturn. The ongoing losses in upstream farming companies are expected to lead to a supply-side contraction, with a price turning point anticipated in 2026 [5] - **Demand-Side Analysis**: The increasing health awareness among consumers is expected to drive the growth of low-temperature milk and cheese products, which will enhance raw milk demand. Regulatory changes are also expected to support the upgrade of the dairy industry by clarifying standards for deep-processed products and improving market access [6] - **Investment Recommendations**: Based on the positive outlook for the raw milk cycle and domestic substitution of deep-processed products, leading dairy companies are expected to benefit from the recovery of market share during the price upturn. Recommended companies include Yili Group and China Shengmu, with a focus on modern farming practices [8]

证券分析师 张东雪 SAC：S1350525060001 zhangdongxue@huayuanstock.com 林若尧 SAC：S1350525070002 linruoyao@huayuanstock.com 联系人 证券研究报告 食品饮料 | 饮料乳品 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 08 日 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2026 | 年 | 02 | 月 | | | | | 日 | | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | 19.50 | | | | | | | 最 高 / 最 | | | | | 低 | | | | | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 16,783.21 | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 16,588.83 | | | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - Recent policies have strengthened consumer expectations, leading to marginal improvements in consumption during the Spring Festival peak season. The performance of high-end liquor, particularly Moutai, has rebounded, and the stability in pricing has improved market sentiment [3][4] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the food and beverage sector, driven by improved domestic demand and consumption patterns as the Spring Festival approaches [4][7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor stocks with price elasticity, recommending companies such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao. It also identifies potential stocks for gradual clearance, including Yingjia Gongjiu and Gujing Gongjiu [7] - Beverage companies are expected to benefit from favorable travel conditions, with recommendations for Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring. Low valuation and high dividend stocks like China Foods and Master Kong are also highlighted [7] - For snacks and food raw materials, recommended stocks include Bailong Chuangyuan and Weilong [7] - Beer recommendations include Qingdao Beer and Zhujiang Beer, while condiment and catering sectors are expected to recover, with recommendations for Qianhe Flavor Industry and Baoli Food [7] Liquor Sector Insights - The high-end liquor sector is leading market sentiment, with Moutai's sales data boosting confidence. The report notes that Moutai's monthly active users exceeded 15.31 million, with over 2.12 million orders in January [8][9] - The liquor industry is currently at a cyclical bottom, with expectations for recovery in sales and pricing as the Spring Festival approaches. Positive trends in inventory and demand could catalyze stock prices further [9] Consumer Goods Insights - The approval of D-allohexose-3-epimerase as a food additive is expected to expand the market for this product, benefiting leading companies like Bailong Chuangyuan. The report anticipates significant growth potential for this company [10][11] - The catering supply chain is expected to recover, with companies like Baobi Food showing promising growth driven by new store formats. The report notes Baobi's revenue of 1.859 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.22% [11]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zheshang Securities highlights the strong competitiveness of New Dairy's products, indicating that the low-temperature leader's momentum will continue, thereby opening up mid-term profit space [1] Group 1: Profitability and Revenue Outlook - The company's net profit margin elasticity is primarily derived from the raw milk cost advantage, suggesting that if raw milk prices stabilize and rise, the company's net profit margin may come under pressure [1] - It is anticipated that the revenue from the company's ambient dairy products will stabilize and narrow its decline by 2026, with expectations for the ambient business revenue to turn positive [1] - The company's revenue forecast for 2026 may be adjusted upwards due to these factors [1] Group 2: Margin Improvement and Rating - The company's profitability is expected to continue improving due to product structure optimization and an increase in the proportion of D2C (Direct-to-Consumer) channels [1] - A target price-to-earnings ratio of 20XPE for 2027 has been set, with an upgrade to a "Buy" rating [1]

证券研究报告 | 公司更新 | 饮料乳品 新乳业(002946) 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 04 日 产品竞争力突出，低温龙头势能延续，打开中期利润空间 ——新乳业推荐报告 投资要点 ❑ 一句话逻辑 低温奶龙头，净利率提升幅度和时间跨度有望超预期，打开中期利润空间。 ❑ 超预期点及驱动因素 市场认为：公司近年来净利率弹性多源于原奶成本红利，因此原奶若企稳回升， 公司的净利率会承压。 我们认为：未来三年公司净利率弹性可期。 驱动因素如下： 1、产品结构优化：一方面，公司产品力α突出，近年来公司新品收入贡献持续 超过双位数，有利推动产品结构优化。朝日唯品、活润、24 小时、初心、今日 鲜奶铺五款全国化低温大单品近年来均有亮眼表现，其中：（1）我们预计活润 25 年或实现高速增长，更是有望在低温酸这个竞争激烈的赛道成为现象级十亿 级大单品，26 年继续在功能化方向上推新发力；（2）朝日唯品在山姆持续推出 芭乐风味发酵乳、焦糖布丁、玫瑰红曲酒酿酪乳等火爆单品。我们认为，"爆品 制造机"背后是公司产品创新研发能力的系统化打造和持续兑现。另一方面，前 期并购的区域子公司中，仍有很多低端产品有结构优化空间。 2、D ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in the low-temperature milk segment, with expected improvements in net profit margins that may exceed market expectations, thereby opening up mid-term profit potential [1] - The market perceives that the company's recent net profit margin elasticity is largely due to the cost benefits from raw milk, suggesting that any stabilization or increase in raw milk prices could pressure margins. However, the report anticipates that net profit margin elasticity will remain promising over the next three years [2] Summary by Sections Product Competitiveness and Growth Drivers - The company has optimized its product structure, with significant contributions from new products, which have consistently exceeded double-digit revenue growth. Key products include "Huirun," "Asahi Weipin," and others, with expectations for "Huirun" to achieve rapid growth and become a major product in the competitive low-temperature yogurt market [2] - The direct-to-consumer (D2C) channel is being prioritized, allowing the company to reach consumers effectively through e-commerce in high-tier cities and home delivery in lower-tier cities, leading to lower costs and higher profit margins [2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are projected at 112.7 billion, 121.9 billion, and 131.4 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 5.7%, 8.1%, and 7.8% respectively. Net profit is expected to reach 7.1 billion, 8.6 billion, and 10.3 billion yuan, with growth rates of 32.0%, 21.5%, and 18.9% respectively [4] - The report suggests a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20x for 2027, reflecting an upward adjustment in the investment rating [4]

证券之星消息，2月4日饮料乳品板块较上一交易日上涨2.59%，新乳业领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4102.2，上涨0.85%。深证成指报收于14156.27，上涨0.21%。饮料乳品板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日饮料乳品板块主力资金净流入2.79亿元，游资资金净流出1.53亿元，散户资金净 流出1.26亿元。饮料乳品板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600887 | 伊利股份 | | 1.98 Z | 12.08% | -1.40 Z | -8.53% | -5818.26万 | -3.55% | | 605499 | 东鹏饮料 | | 3694.61万 | 3.57% | 1050.94万 | 1.02% | -4745.55万 | -4.59% | | 600300 维维股份 | | | 2371.25万 | 6.75% | -1853.19万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, particularly in the liquor segment, driven by increased market demand during the Spring Festival sales season and positive expectations for leading brands like Moutai [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The food and beverage ETF Huabao (515710) saw a price increase of 1.53%, with a peak intraday gain of 2.04% [1][2]. - Key stocks in the liquor sector, such as Dongpeng Beverage, Xin Dairy, and Jiugui Liquor, reported gains exceeding 4%, while Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao rose over 3% [1][3]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The rise in liquor stocks is attributed to the expanded market demand during the Spring Festival and optimistic expectations regarding Moutai's sales performance and quota policies [1][3]. - The current market environment has led to a renewed focus on the "certainty premium" and safe-haven attributes of high-end liquor, contributing to a rotation effect within the sector [1]. Group 3: Valuation Insights - The food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, with the food index's price-to-earnings ratio at 20.37, placing it in the 8.61% percentile of the last decade [3]. - The low valuation and improving market sentiment provide a favorable entry point for long-term investments in the sector [3].